Forecast

September 21, 2022 report

September 21, 2022

The low pressure system which had been hanging off shore at northern California for the past three days is now making its move inland through northern California. This is now a weaker version of the storm and only spotty light showers are showing up from roughly Sacramento north. The low will continue to accelerate off towards the northeast, returning a dry weather pattern to the central valley. We still have another two days of pleasant temperatures ahead, however, as the air mass in the wake of the low is fairly mild. In fact, the freezing level this morning over Oakland is at 9,500 feet. This will keep temperatures in the low 80s through Thursday. Upper level high pressure will begin to fill in from the west beginning Thursday for a noticeable jump in temperatures Friday. Late summer temperatures will return Saturday and on through the middle of next week. readings then will level off into the low 90s at most locations. Medium range models don’t show anything too exciting. Just a blanket of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western US.

 

Forecast: Becoming mostly clear today. Mostly clear skies will continue tonight and all the way through Wednesday of next week.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 81/54/85/54/90 Reedley 82/53/85/55/89 Dinuba 81/53/85/54/89
Porterville 81/55/85/56/90 Lindsay 82/54/85/55/91 Delano 82/56/84/55/91
Bakersfield 81/62/84/62/89 Taft 80/60/82/62/88 Arvin 83/56/85/56/90
Lamont 81/57/85/58/91 Pixley 82/54/84/55/90 Tulare 80/53/83/54/88
Woodlake 81/54/85/55/90 Hanford 82/56/86/57/91 Orosi 81/54/84/55/89

 

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday

Mostly clear

59/91

Sunday

Mostly clear

59/95

Monday

Mostly clear

61/96

Tuesday

Mostly clear

62/96

Wednesday

Mostly clear

62/96

 

Two Week Outlook:  September 28 through October 4: This model shows a blanket of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California for above average temperatures. It also points to an active monsoon with moisture moving into Arizona and possibly southern California.

 

October:  This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.

 

October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds during the late morning through the early morning hours will be variable to no more than 12 mph. winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 82%/37%  Porterville, 90%/41%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 30%/. Tomorrow, 90%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.23, Parlier 1.13, Arvin 1.44, Orange Cove .*, Porterville 1.23, Delano 1.28. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 76, Parlier 75, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 83, Delano 81. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 89/59. Record Temperatures: 102/44

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  2173 +457. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.40 or -4.56.  Monthly  .05 -.04

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 5.41 or  -.93.  Monthly,  -.01 -.03

Average Temperature this month: 82.0 +5.8  Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, ,  Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,.  courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 6:46, Sunset, 6:57, hours of daylight, 12:11

Yesterday’s Weather:

  • MCE : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  81 /  57 / 0.03 /
  • MAE : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  79 /  60 / 0.19 /
  • FAT : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  81 /  64 / 0.03 /
  • HJO : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  84 /  62 / 0.02 /
  • NLC : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  83 /  62 / 0.03 /
  • BFL : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  84 /  73 / 0.00 /
  • VIS : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  83 /  62 /    T /
  • PTV : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  84 /  62 / 0.00 /
  • TFTC1 : Taft               759 : DH1649 /  81 /  64 / 0.00 /
  • Rainfall: 24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave         ave  365

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.87    74    7.89    59    13.40    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    9.08    74    7.15    58    12.23    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    7.64    65    7.00    59    11.77    11.80

MADERA                        0.02       M     M       M     M    10.77    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    6.40    58    6.59    60    10.96    10.99

HANFORD                          T    6.38    79    4.29    53     8.10     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    5.41    85    2.77    44     6.34     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    6.73   141    1.69    35     4.78     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    7.38    59    5.79    46    12.55    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.08    75    6.74    56    12.11    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    9.63    72    6.88    52    13.29    13.32

Next report: Thursday, September 22

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.