November 13, 2022
A fast moving rather compact upper low is racing through western Nevada at this hour. It’s impact is being felt here in the central valley, although minor. Temperatures on the average are 1 to 3 degrees warmer across most of the citrus belt, however Sanger and Navelencia each dipped down to 31 degrees. Most locations in the Kern County portion of the valley only dipped into the upper 30s and lower 40s due to upslope clouds forming against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. I’m going to go ahead and shave about four degrees off our highs today due to another shot of cold air moving down the valley from that low just to our east.
A second upper air disturbance is just off the northwest California coast this morning and will be west of San Francisco in another 24 hours. Like its predecessor, this system is quite small and will slide down the coast almost unnoticed. Behind this system, a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure will build northward clear into the Gulf of Alaska while another burst of modified arctic air plunges southward into the interior west. For now, it appears this air will stay just to our west.
Highs for much of this week will warm into the lower 60s with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 30s.
Beyond this week, models still point to a dry pattern, although it’s possible the general flow pattern will become more northwesterly, resulting in milder afternoons and somewhat milder nights.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy skies in Kern County this morning. Otherwise it will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy elsewhere. Mostly clear tonight with some clouds possibly remaining in Kern County. Mostly clear skies Monday through Thursday with areas of night and morning high clouds. Mostly clear Thursday night through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog up the center of the valley.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/32/62/32/62 | Reedley 58/33/62/32/63 | Dinuba 57/32/61/31/62 |
| Porterville 57/32/63/31/62 | Lindsay 58/31/62/31/62 | Delano 59/33/62/32/63 |
| Bakersfield 57/39/63/40/62 | Taft 57/38/62/38/63 | Arvin 57/32/62/31/62 |
| Lamont 58/36/62/35/63 | Pixley 58/33/63/32/62 | Tulare 57/31/61/31/61 |
| Woodlake 58/31/62/32/62 | Hanford 59/33/62/32/62 | Orosi 57/31/62/32/61 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Am fog/pm sun 33/62 |
Thursday
Am fog/pm sun 32/63 |
Friday
Am fog/pm sun 32/62 |
Saturday
Am fog/pm sun 34/65 |
Sunday
Am fog/pm sun 35/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 19 through November 25: This model shows only a minimal chance of showers during this period, but doesn’t rule out a chance of inclement weather. Temperatures will be near seasonal.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 5mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds later tonight through Wednesday will generally be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost: A few locations in Kern County didn’t get out of the 40s overnight due to upslope clouds that developed from a fast moving system currently zipping through nortwest Nevada. Further north, however, most locations were in the lower 30s with Sanger and Navelencia at 31. Tonight’s little wild card will be upslope clouds banking up against the valley facing portion of the Kern County mountains. Locations that have at least some cloud cover overnight will end up in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Most other locations, however, will observe temperatures in the low to mid 30s. It’s still possible a river bottom or two could brush with the upper 20s for short durations.
Daytime highs after today will move into the lower 60s, which is still below average, but with dew points hovering in the low 40s, reasonable radiational cooling will drop temperatures to their threshold. Each night through Friday will continue in that range with minor modification coming up over the weekend.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
34 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
33 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
31 |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/55% Porterville, 100%/59%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 70%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 41 Parlier 37 Arvin 52 Porterville 44 Delano 42
Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 36, Arvin 61, Porterville 43, Delano 59 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 60% today 80% Bakersfield 88% today 80%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 57, Arvin 61, Porterville 58, Delano 58 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/43 Record Temperatures: 81/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 227 +38 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 78% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 207% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 51.2 -5.4Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 55, Parlier 81, Arvin 47 , Belridge 72, Shafter 60, Stratford 91, Delano 66, Porterville 75 courtesy UC Davis Sunrise 6:36, Sunset, 4:52, hours of daylight, 10:16
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 62 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 61 / 46 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 63 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
SSTOCKTON T 1.24 107 4.32 372 1.16 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 134 3.06 344 0.89 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 96 1.99 193 1.03 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 68 0.65 88 0.74 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 75 1.57 178 0.88 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 87 1.24 182 0.68 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 143 0.95 207 0.46 6.36
BISHOP M 0.46 100 0.78 170 0.46 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 13 M M 0.15 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.72 72 2.19 219 1.00 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 108 1.40 152 0.92 13.32
Next report: November 13 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.