December 1, 2022
As of the time of this writing, rain had spread over all of northern California. Light showers were moving on shore along the central coast with light showers moving into the central part of the central valley. Satellite imagery shows large swaths of tropical moisture moving in from roughly the north bay counties up to Eureka. This band of moisture will move southward as the day progresses with significant rain on the valley floor and heavy precipitation up and down the southern Sierra. The balloon sounding above Oakland a short time ago indicated a freezing level of 6,000 feet, so no doubt the snow level in the central Sierra Nevada is at roughly 5,000 feet. Two to three feet of new snow is anticipated from this first storm alone. Heaviest rain will be late this afternoon and tonight then the back side of the storm will move east of the Sierra Nevada Friday as dry weather temporarily returns to the valley.
The second low is a large scale system. Its center of circulation is currently west of British Columbia and will slide southward to off the northern California coast Friday and Friday night. Models also show a pretty good batch of moisture moving inland around the southern quadrant of this storm and into central California Friday night through Saturday night with a good chance of showers continuing well into Sunday, tapering off Sunday night.
For now, next week appears dry as upper level high pressure builds in from the west.
Forecast: Light showers this morning, turning to rain later this afternoon through tonight. Rain could be locally heavy at times. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday. Rain again Friday night, continuing off and on through Saturday night. Showers Sunday, especially during the first part of the day, tapering off Sunday evening. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Monday with patchy morning fog. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday with increasing amounts of night and morning valley fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/40/55/38/57 | Reedley 59/41/55/41/60 | Dinuba 58/40/55/41/59 |
| Porterville 58/39/54/38/57 | Lindsay 58/39/54/37/57 | Delano 60/42/55//42/61 |
| Bakersfield 60/43/55/42/63 | Taft 58/44/55/47/61 | Arvin 61/42/55/42/62 |
| Lamont 61/41//55/41/61 | Pixley 59/40/55/41/61 | Tulare 57/39/54/38/57 |
| Woodlake 58/40/54/40/57 | Hanford 58/40/54/38/57 | Orosi 57/39/54/38/57 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
AM showers 47/61 |
Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 38/62 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 33/58 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 33/57 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 32/55 |
Two Week Outlook: December 8 through December 14: This time around, this model is still showing the storm door being open during this period for a reasonably good chance of precipitation. These storms come from the Gulf of Alaska so temperatures will be chilly.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds through tonight will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Winds Friday night will be light and variable then will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph possible.
Rain: Light showers have arrived in the valley. The main band of heavy precipitation is still in northern California and will move southward through the valley this afternoon, continuing thorugh tonight. Locally heavy precipitation is possible along the east side of the valley north of a Kern County line. One half to three-quarters of an inch is certainly possible with this system. Along the west side, one-quarter to possibly as much as one-half inch is possible. In Kern County, upwards of a quarter of an inch is possible. Friday will be dry then showers will spread over the valley again late Friday night and continue at times all the way into Sunday. Another quarter to one—half inch is possible with heaviest amounts along the east side where upwards of one-half inch is possible. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening. When and if this occurs, heavier amounts of rain will be possible. Showers will taper off by Sunday evening with dry weather next week.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through Monday. the air mass behind Sunday’s storm event is relatively cold. Tuesday through Friday of next week, we will see at least low to mid 30s with upper 20s possible in the coldest locations. Instead of a very dry San Joaquin Valley we had for much of November, we’ll now have a considerable amount of soil moisture and, with a cap developing under a dome of high pressure, fog will certainly become a player, especially from midweek on. At any rate, nothing is showing up that would indicate a particularly cold pattern is on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
af |
| Root creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 91%/40% Porterville, 99%/42%
Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today 10% tomorrow 20%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .54 Parlier, .45 Arvin .60 Porterville .50 Delano .46
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 52 Arvin 55 Porterville .52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 59/38 Record Temperatures: 76/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 519 +77 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 46% of average, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 84% of average, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature This Month: 49.5 -3.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 249, Parlier 331 Arvin 222 , Belridge 283, Shafter 286, Stratford 315, Delano 302, Porterville 317 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:54, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:50
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 62 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 63 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 65 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 62 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 62 / 39 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 59 4.32 207 2.09 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 73 3.06 189 1.62 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 60 1.99 120 1.66 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 37 0.65 48 1.36 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 46 1.57 110 1.43 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 55 1.24 115 1.08 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 84 0.95 120 0.79 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 70 0.78 118 0.66 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 9 M M 0.22 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 78 2.19 118 1.86 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 50 1.58 110 1.43 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 60 1.40 84 1.66 13.32
Next report: December 1 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.