December 27, 2022
The first in several storms has spread rain over almost the entire district. As of the time of this writing, the only exception was the southwest corner of the valley which is under a rain shadow. This first storm will peak this morning but with further precipitation this afternoon, tapering off this evening. From this first event alone, an inch to an inch and a half of rain is possible along the eastern flank of the valley from roughly Porterville north. These storms are moving from west to east perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada. Lift will wring copious amounts of precipitation out along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Latest precipitation estimates this week for parts of Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks is between ten and fifteen inches and near ten inches at Yosemite. Subtropical moisture is feeding on an atmospheric river of air moving in on the jet stream which is approaching 100 mph over northern California. There will be a gap with a dry period Wednesday then the chance of rain will increase again Wednesday night and Thursday with another wave moving in Friday and Friday night with yet another strong system moving in Saturday. The timing of all this is a bit tricky as these systems move rapidly across the Pacific and evolve as they do. The medium range model just out this morning indicates the storm track may migrate somewhat further north by next Monday, possibly giving us a few days of dry weather. However, the two week model still maintains an open storm door. On the surface chart, there are tightly wound isobars between central California and the parent low off of Washington state. This will provide gusty winds out of the southeast, especially along the west side and from Fresno County north.
Forecast: Rain today, possibly locally heavy at times. Rain tapering off tonight. Variable cloudiness Wednesday. Showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Rain likely Friday with periods of rain again Saturday and a chance of rain Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 54/45/55/40/52 | Reedley 56/45/54/41/54 | Dinuba 56/45/54/42/52 |
| Porterville 55/47/53/44/53 | Lindsay 55/44/54/41/53 | Delano 55/46/55/42/52 |
| Bakersfield 56/48/53/44/52 | Taft 57/47/55/42/53 | Arvin 56/46/55/42/54 |
| Lamont 55/44/54/42/54 | Pixley 56/45/54/41/53 | Tulare 53/44/54/41/53 |
| Woodlake 54/44/54/42/52 | Hanford 53/45/54/41/53 | Orosi 53/44/54/42/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Showers likely 45/55 |
Saturday
Showers likely 52/59 |
Sunday
Showers likely 48/61 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 38/54 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 40/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 3 through January 9: This model shows the storm door remaining open during this time frame with above average rainfall. Temperatures during this time frame are anticipated to be near seasonal averages.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: There are strong differences in pressure between relatively higher pressure over southern California and the parent low off the Pacific Northwest. This will result in gusty southeast winds from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds should average 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph are possible from Fresno County north and along the Interstate 5 corridor through tonight. From Wednesday through Friday, winds will continue out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times with stronger gusts, interspersed with periods of lighter winds.
Rain: Rain will continue for much of the day, locally heavy at times, then will taper off tonight with a short break Tuesday. As storm systems continue to evolve to our west, on and off rain can be expected for the remainder of the week. rainfall along the east side of the valley from now through New Year’s Day may tally up to 3 to 4 inches from roughly Porterville northward to Merced. Inch and a half totals are expected along the west side with the exception of the southwest corner of the valley which may record between .50 and 1.00. Interestingly enough, computer estimates for Bakersfield show between 2 and 3 inches, which would be astonishing for them. It appears we may get a break next week for a time. However, longer range models bring precipitation back later next week.
Frost: Expect dry conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/100% Porterville, 100%/98%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 0%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .03, Parlier, .06 Arvin .16, Porterville .06, Delano .08
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 47 Arvin 50 Porterville .45, Delano 45 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/36 Record Temperatures: 72/23
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1024 +90 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 3.27 113% of average, Monthly 2.59
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .1.10, 65% of average, Monthly: .44
Average Temperature This Month 45.3 -0.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 577, Parlier 721 Arvin 584 Belridge 652, Shafter 675, Stratford 682, Delano 699, Porterville 695 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:11 Sunset, 4:51, hours of daylight, 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 48 / 46 / 0.14 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 50 / 46 / 0.03 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 49 / 46 / 0.06 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 47 / 46 / 0.04 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 47 / 46 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 51 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 46 / 43 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 49 / 42 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 4.47 109 7.77 190 4.09 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.48 130 7.55 219 3.44 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.77 117 4.99 155 3.22 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.04 71 1.26 44 2.86 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.25 113 4.70 163 2.88 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.34 108 4.15 191 2.17 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 65 3.34 199 1.68 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.15 185 4.48 386 1.16 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.03 7 M M 0.43 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.77 104 5.43 150 3.62 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.34 144 6.17 205 3.01 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.27 99 5.69 173 3.29 13.
Next report: December 27 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.