January 4, 2023
If were to pick a word for the storm now approaching California it would be “impressive”. Satellite imagery depicts a full blown Pacific storm with a sculpted looking comma configuration and an atmospheric river pouring into the southwest portion of the storm. Behind the cold front, which is still well out to sea are clouds that look like popcorn. This depicts colder and very unstable air. This air will arrive Thursday, resulting in a chance of thunderstorms. The difference in pressure between the low, which is roughly 450 miles west of the California coast and southern California is considerable. Hurricane force winds will slam into the north coast with 50 to 60 mph winds up the Sacramento Valley and the northern San Joaquin Valley. Our wind situation is discussed below in the wind summary. This storm is actually moving into California in two phases. The first phase is a warm front which is currently moving on shore and is spreading light rain into the valley there will be a lull in precipitation later this morning and this afternoon as there’s a good sized gap between the warm front and the cold front. The cold front will arrive late tonight and Thursday with heavy rain possible. The severe storms center has the San Joaquin Valley listed as possibly seeing thunderstorms Thursday, a few of which could become severe. Precipitation will last well into Thursday evening. precipitation amounts are summarized in the rain discussion below. We will actually have two days of dry weather: Friday into Saturday, before the next, considerably weaker system spreads rain over the valley mainly north of Kern County, with yet another moving in Monday through Tuesday. This event will also be a full blown winter storm with locally heavy rain. I just took peak at the GFS model and it depicts more storms moving in later next week.
Forecast: only light showers will be possible through mid morning. Variable cloudiness with a chance of showers this afternoon. Rain tonight along with strong, gusty, southeast winds. Rain will be heavy at times, especially after midnight. Rain Thursday morning. Showers Thursday afternoon and evening with a chance of thunderstorms. Becoming mostly cloudy later Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday through Saturday. Periods of showers possible north of Kern County. A chance of showers Sunday night. Rain becoming locally heavy at times Monday and Tuesday. A chance of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 63/53/58/43/57 | Reedley 64/54/58/44/57 | Dinuba 63/53/58/43/56 |
| Porterville 64/53/54/45/55 | Lindsay 63/41/58/42/56 | Delano 65/53/59/45/55 |
| Bakersfield 67/55/59/46/57 | Taft 64/54/57/43/55 | Arvin 66/54/66/45/67 |
| Lamont 66/54/59/46/56 | Pixley 65/52/58/43/56 | Tulare 63/52/58/45/56 |
| Woodlake 63/52/57/43/55 | Hanford 64/53/58/44/57 | Orosi 63/52/58/43/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Mostly cloydt 38/56 |
Sunday
Light rain’ 44/57 |
Monday
Rain likely 44/58 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 48/58 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 42/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 9 through January 15; This model shows high pressure southwest of it’s average position for this time of year. With generally a west/northwest flow, temperatures will be near normal. The chance of rain will remain relatively high, especially from Fresno County north.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: It is rare to see differences in pressure as steep as they will become this afternoon and tonight. Significant jet stream aloft combined with the difference in pressure between the low off the California coast and southern California will result in strong, gusty winds. Winds between 30 and 40 mph up the west side of the valley are possible. This configuration is also possible for strong, gusty downslope winds in Kern County. Gusts up to 70 mph are possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. These winds will fan out with gusts as high as 50 mph as far north as Bakersfield. Strongest winds will occur tonight into early Thursday morning. Winds in the 15 to 30 mph range out of the southeast will affect the central and eastern San Joaquin Valley. Winds will quickly decrease Thursday with winds of no more than 20 mph with a chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be light Friday through Saturday.
Rain: A mammoth winter storm is bearing down on California. It will be challenging to forecast because of high wind energy aloft and strong gusty down slope winds off the Kern County mountains and into the south valley. Typically, events like this generate large rain shadows which can affect rain fall amounts through Kern County and even Tulare County.
On the flip side, lift along the Sierra Nevada will possibly generate 3 to 5 inches of rain, especially north of Tulare County. Light showers will spread over the valley this morning but will end later this morning due to a gap between the warm front, which is currently moving through and the cold front which will pound the area tonight and Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts from this event from Fresno County north could be in excess of 1 to 2 inches, Kings County may measure 1.00 to 1.50 but that’s speculative due to rain shadows. Tulare County’s rainfall amounts are also speculative with this event but could receive up to .50 and possibly 1,00 inch, Kern County is a nightmare to forecast. I’ve seen events like this in the past where almost no rain was measured but we’ll go ahead and forecast .25 to .50. this even will end Thursday night with dry weather Friday through Saturday a much weaker system will spread light rain as far south as Fresno County and possibly further south Saturday night through Sunday night. Another strong low will spread significant rain over the area Monday through Tuesday. The storm door will remain open after Wednesday of next week.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 95%/54% Porterville, 100%/68%
Midafternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 20%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .25, Parlier, .18 Arvin .23, Porterville .13, Delano .17
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 52 Arvin 53, Porterville 50, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 54/37 Record Temperatures: 71/22
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1118 +51 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 5.75, 167% of average, Monthly .50
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 2.48, 123% of average, Monthly: .13
Average Temperature This Month 45.8 -0.2 +0.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 614, Parlier 758 Arvin 628 Belridge 693, Shafter 717, Stratford 724, Delano 743, Porterville 728 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:12 Sunset, 4:57, hours of daylight, 9:44.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 59 / 45 / 0.03 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 44 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 46 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 43 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 39 / 0.06 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 59 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1535 / 61 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 54 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON T 10.31 218 8.21 173 4.74 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.56 210 8.15 200 4.07 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.61 174 5.79 153 3.79 11.80
MADERA 0.00 3.04 90 1.46 43 3.38 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.75 167 5.21 151 3.44 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.00 153 4.60 176 2.62 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 2.48 123 3.55 177 2.01 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.12 217 4.50 313 1.44 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.20 39 M M 0.51 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 6.27 149 6.11 145 4.21 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.32 173 7.12 195 3.66 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.06 152 6.09 153 3.98 13.32
Next report: January 4 afternoon
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