January 28, 2023 afternoon report

January 28, 2023

We are still watching conditions to our north as a colder weather pattern begins to evolve. A weak low is currently over Oregon and will center over northern California by Sunday morning. Light showers will spread over the northern mountains then down the northern Sierra Nevada Sunday morning and over the remainder of the Sierra Sunday afternoon. They will finally spread over the Kern County mountains and deserts in the evening. The chance for measurable rain on the valley floor still appears minimal and where precipitation does occur, it will likely initially begin in Merced County then spread over the remainder of the growing area in the form of scattered light showers. Amounts of rain, if any,, will be anywhere from a few hundredths to upward of .10 or so. This is a very cold system, so snow levels will initially start out at near 4,000 feet, dropping to 2,000 feet by early Monday morning. The low will continue to move due southward to a position near San Diego Monday night and over northern Baja Tuesday. Behind this system will be a brief, north/northwest flow which will pump very cold air down the valley, leading to subfreezing conditions Monday and Tuesday mornings and possibly Wednesday. Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest in this short lived freeze. By Wednesday, the winds aloft will already be westerly as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the coast. Models this afternoon are a bit more bullish on the chance for showers Thursday afternoon into Friday, so we’ll introduce that into this forecast.

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through mid morning Sunday. Increasing cloudiness later Sunday morning. Light, scattered showers headed southward Sunday afternoon, continuing through Sunday evening. Mostly clear Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday morning leading to a chance of showers Thursday afternoon and night, especially north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Friday through Saturday with patchy fog Friday morning.

Temperatures:

Madera 33/52/37/50	Reedley 33/52/36/51	Dinuba 32/52/35/50
Porterville 33/51/35/50	Lindsay 32/52/34/49	Delano 34/53/35/50
Bakersfield 39/52/37/49	Taft 40/52/37/47	Arvin 35/53/37/51
Lamont 34/51/35/51	Pixley 37/52/35/51	Tulare 35/51/35/50
Woodlake 33/52/35/51	Hanford 34/53/35/51	Orosi 33/51/34/50

Wind Discussion: Winds tonight will be light and variable with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the north to northwest at 8 to 15 mph. local gusts to 20 mph are possible, mainly along the west side from Merced County through Kings County. Generally variable winds can be expected elsewhere. Winds later Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 6 mph.

Rain: Dry weather will continue well into Sunday evening. Light showers will begin in Merced County around midday Sunday then spread southward Sunday afternoon, continuing through Sunday afternoon. Models for several days now have depicted this event as being pretty uneventful as far as amounts of rain go. Some locations could easily remain dry and those that do pick up some precipitation will likely not pick up more than a few hundredths upwards to .10. Most,, if not all, the activity will be over by midnight Monday with dry weather Monday through Wednesday night. We’re going to add a chance of showers to the forecast for Thursday into Friday, mainly north of Kern County as a trough of low pressure moves through Thursday and Thursday night. Models have flipped somewhat on the weekend forecast which now appears to be dry. However, stay tuned as models have been inconsistent on this time frame.

Frost: We are still on schedule for a two night, possibly three night, freeze event beginning Monday morning. A weak semi-arctic low is centered over Oregon this afternoon and will drop into central California Sunday with a pool of cold, modified arctic air. As the low drops into southern California Monday, it will be followed by a brief north/northeast flow which will pool on the valley floor, allowing for strong radiational cooling Monday and Tuesday. This is a fairly dry system, so we probably will not observe the usual upslope cloud deck against the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada.

It appears the coldest unprotected types of regions will potentially drop down to 25 to 26 Monday morning. Ideal conditions would mean clear skies and calm winds. It’s possible this first night could see local wind conditions and even cloud cover, however my feeling is cloud cover will be spotty at best and this system isn’t dynamic enough for much wind energy. With that in mind, most flat terrain regions will generally drop to 27 to 29 with hillsides in the lower 30s. Tuesday morning will be similar to possibly a degree or two colder.

It still looks like this will be a short lived freeze as a trough of low pressure will be approaching the coast Thursday, possibly spreading some showers into central California. Even if showers remain to our north, a westerly flow will pull through, blocking the northeast flow. Medium range models do not indicate any additional cold patterns after Wednesday, so even though January will end up cold, modifications will take place in early February..

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: January 29 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.