February 3, 2023

February 3, 2023

Most of the light showers in Merced County are now moving eastward into the central Sierra. No measurable rain was recorded south of Merced County, as expected. Temperatures at midday are running anywhere from 4 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago due to a weak southerly flow moving in ahead of the active weather to our north. A very temporary weak ridge of high pressure will shift eastward into the west coast before a stronger system spreads precipitation over the entire region Saturday night and Sunday. The parent low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a trough extending all the way into southern California. Precipitation amounts in the Sierra Nevada will be heavy with 1 to 2 feet of new snow above the 7,000 foot elevation. Some fairly decent amounts of rain will also occur in the valley. This is discussed below in the rain summary. Following this event will be at least 6 days of dry weather as a ridge of upper level high pressure anchors off the coast. The flow of upper level winds will turn northerly Sunday night and Monday, leading to a cooling trend which should result in local frost again beginning Tuesday morning. A week from Sunday, a strong low pressure system is expected to move to a position off the northern California coast. This is expected to spread precipitation over most of California. More and more models are showing an active pattern after this event which hopefully will put some icing on the cake along the Sierra Nevada.

Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight through Saturday. Increasing clouds Saturday evening. Rain will spread over the valley late Saturday evening, continuing through the night. Showers Sunday with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers for a time Sunday evening. Becoming mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday morning. Clearing Monday afternoon but possibly remaining mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties. Mostly clear skies Monday night through Friday night.

Temperatures:

Madera 35/66/44/58	Reedley 36/67/45/60	Dinuba 34/66/45/60
Porterville 34/67/45/61	Lindsay 33/67/45/60	Delano 35/67/45/61
Bakersfield 41/68/48/59	Taft 43/66/49/59	Arvin 38/67/48/61
Lamont 37/68/48/60	Pixley 34/67/46/58	Tulare 34/65/47/59
Woodlake 34/66/45/60	Hanford 36/67/47/60	Orosi 33/65/45/59

Wind Discussion: Winds this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph, becoming light to near calm after midnight. Winds Saturday morning will be light and variable. Winds during the afternoon will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph Saturday night with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds by midday Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, especially near showers. Winds Sunday evening will continue out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, becoming light after midnight. Winds Monday through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

Rain: The light showers over Merced County will be ending over the next couple of hours. Expect dry weather through Saturday. A fairly robust low pressure system will spread precipitation over the valley Saturday night with showers continuing Sunday and Sunday evening. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible Sunday afternoon, mainly from Fresno County north. Rainfall amounts along the eastern sector of the valley north of Kern County should add up to .25 to .33, possibly as much as .50 in Merced County. The west side will be under a rain shadow, so possible a tenth or two could be tallied there. The rain shadow will be most pronounced in Kern County with possibly no more than a tenth of an inch falling there. The period of Monday through Saturday will be dry. Models continue to place a fairly strong low off the northern California coast a week from this coming Sunday for our next chance of rain. Models are also trending toward an active pattern following that.

Frost: Coldest river bottom and similar locations tonight will drop into the lower 30s. It remains to be seen how much upslope clouds will develop. At any rate, most locations will dip into the 30s with only the very coldest locations teasing with the freezing mark. All locations will be above freezing Sunday and Monday mornings due to cloud cover and precipitation. the air mass swinging in behind Sunday’s storm is colder but certainly nothing excessive. Low to mid 30s are likely Tuesday through Friday mornings.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root Creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmin

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: February 4 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.