November 1, 2023
Summary In the short term, a high center off the southern California coast will continue to drive the storm track through the Pacific Northwest through Thursday night. On Friday, the rain line will drop into northern California. From Friday night through Sunday there’s a small chance light showers could spread as far south as Merced County. Another shot at light showers from Fresno County north will arrive Tuesday. Essentially, we are in what we call a zonal pattern. that’s where storms run from west to east across the eastern Pacific, moving on shore through the Pacific Northwest and northern California. By next Thursday, a stronger trough of low pressure will move on shore, possibly spreading precipitation over the entire region. Temperatures will run marginally above average through Sunday then fall below average Monday through Thursday.
Forecast Mostly clear through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Sunday. There will be a small chance of sprinkles or light showers from Fresno County north Saturday through Sunday morning. Partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday then another small chance of light showers from Fresno County north Monday night and Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures
| Madera 78/42/79/44/75 | Reedley 79/43//79/45/75 | Dinuba 77/41/75/42/75 |
| Porterville 80/42/80/43/77 | Lindsay 79/41/78/43/75 | Delano 80/43/79/45/76 |
| Bakersfield 80/48/81/47/77 | Taft 76/53/77/53/75 | Arvin 80/45/80/46/78 |
| Lamont 81/46/80/46/77 | Pixley 78/43/79/44/76 | Tulare 76/42/76/44/75 |
| Woodlake 77/41/77’//43/77 | Hanford 78/43//79/47/75 | Orosi 77/42/79/44/75 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Slight chance of showers 46/78 | Sunday Slight chance of showers 48/77 | Monday Partly cloudy 52/72 | Tuesday Slight chance of showers 48/71 | Wednesday Chance of showers 44/69 |
Two Week Outlook: November 8 through November 13 The storm track will remain active through the Pacific Northwest and northern California during this period,, meaning measurable rain will be possible, especially over the northern portion of the growing area. Temperatures will remain above average.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas t o southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds through this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts along the west side. Winds later tonight through Saturday will be mainly at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. An active storm track will continue to be aimed over the Pacific Northwest and northern California during this period. There will be a minimal chance of measurable rain Saturday through Sunday morning from mainly Merced County north during this period. There will be another minimal chance, this time from Fresno County north, Monday night and Tuesday. It appears the best chance of rain will occur Thursday night and Friday of next week when the jet stream buckles, possibly allowing precipitation down into central California.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 20s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .78, Parlier, .71, Arvin .78, Delano .73.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier *, Arvin 67, Delano 62 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 71/47, Record Temperatures: 88/33
Heating Degree Days Season. 52 -34 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 67.3 +2.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1 st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford,
Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:23. Sunset, 6:01. hours of daylight, 10:39
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 74 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 77 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 78 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 80 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 77 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 78 / 38 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 74 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.19 28 0.00 0 0.69 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.42 76 0.00 0 0.55 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.16 25 0.00 0 0.64 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.02 5 0.00 0 0.44 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.56 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.46 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.30 107 0.00 0 0.28 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 51 T 0 0.35 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.12 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 37 0.01 2 0.60 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.56 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.54 13.32
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Next report: November 2
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.