January 31, 2024
Summary: The heaviest rainfall over the past 12 hours or so has been along and just inland from the southern California coast. Santa Barbara has picked up 3.67, Casitas tallied 5.37, Long Beach 2.43, and Santa Monica 2.73. On the valley floor, Bakersfield has measured .39, Delano .18, Visalia .34, Hanford .24, and Fresno .57. Merced also picked up .57.
The atmospheric river is now to our east and south, so we are now entering the colder and more unstable portion of this event. The daytime heating process is already forming new showers over the Coast Range and as the air further destabilizes this afternoon and evening, more showers will occur along with the possibility of thunderstorms. Showers at times can be expected through Friday. I want to keep a chance of showers in the forecast for Friday night through Saturday night. The second powerful low and its companion, the atmospheric river of air or pineapple connection will arrive Sunday with continued on and off precipitation through Tuesday. Rainfall, especially Sunday and Monday, could potentially be rather heavy as there will be plenty of subtropical air feeding into the storm from the southwest. After Wednesday of next week, models are in a state of flux. However, it is possible a cold low will drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska, arriving next Thursday and Friday. For the first time in two weeks, the two week model is now suggesting a drier pattern from the 9th to the 15th.
Forecast, Periods of rain through Friday, possibly locally heavy at times. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday. An increasing chance of rain again by late Saturday night. Rain likely at times Sunday through Tuesday night, possibly locally heavy at times Sunday and Monday. A chance of showers Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. A chance of showers Friday night through Saturday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 43/57/38/56 | Reedley 45/58/38/57 | Dinuba 43/57/37/56 |
| Porterville 46/58/38/57 | Lindsay 43/57/37/57 | Delano 47/58/39/57 |
| Bakersfield 47/58/42/56 | Taft 47/54/43/53 | Arvin 47/58/40/57 |
| Lamont 47/58/40/57 | Pixley 43/57/39/56 | Tulare 43/56/37/57 |
| Woodlake 43/57/37/58 | Hanford 46/58/39/58 | Orosi 43/57/36/57 |
Winds: Winds through Saturday will be generally variable to around 15 mph. Gusts to near 20 mph are possible near showers. The timeframe of late Saturday night through early Monday does not appear quite as menacing as it had previously looked. However, by no means am I going to take the chance of a high wind event out of the forecast. A deep surface low along with an atmospheric river will arrive by Sunday morning, setting up significant pressure differences between Nevada and the central coast. This favors more of an east to west component, which is somewhat unusual but does not eliminate the risk of high winds. For now, we’ll just go with a slight chance of this occurring in the forecast and update you in future reports.
Rain: The California River Forecast Center has gone ga-ga with very high rainfall estimates through next Wednesday. Their forecast calls for 2 to 3 inches of rain on the valley floor between now and next Wednesday. The same source computes 6 to 8 inches of rain in the foothills and mountains. Heaviest precipitation will arrive along a strong atmospheric river Sunday through Monday night and will be over the southern half of California. Rainfall so far on the valley floor has generally ranged from one-fourth to around six-tenths of an inch. Radar, as of the time of this writing, was depicting showers developing over the valley floor. there are some breaks in the cloud deck which means the sun can add more convection to the atmosphere, thus creating a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Expect periods of showers through Friday with a chance of showers from Friday night through Saturday night. blockbuster storm number 2 will arrive Sunday with rain at times all the way through Tuesday of next week. Some models are suggesting a cold low will drop down out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Thursday and Friday of next week. for the first time in roughly 2 weeks, the two week model is suggesting the development of a drier pattern beginning February 9th.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next week to ten days.