August 6, 2018
Summary: Thirty days in a row was the new record for consecutive 100+ degree days at Fresno. Temperatures backed off to a chilly 99 Sunday, breaking this string, but not by much. Currently, a westerly flow is evident across the eastern Pacific and into California which is flanked underneath a low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The main high center in the upper levels of the atmosphere is now over western New Mexico.
A new string of 100+ degree weather will possibly begin today but for sure tomorrow. The marine layer is only 1,000 feet deep, so no marine air will affect the San Joaquin Valley. The biggest problem will be haze and smoke from that fire near Yosemite.
Beginning Tuesday, models show the high starting to build northward and westward, effectively turning up the furnace. By Wednesday and Thursday, hottest locations could be around 107 to 108 with most areas in the 102 to 106 degree range. As that high shifts westward into California, the winds aloft Thursday and Friday will be out of the southeast. At least a minimal amount of monsoonal moisture will sneak into the area for an increasing chance of PM thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.
Well to our south we have Tropical Storm John which will be upgraded to a hurricane later today. By Wednesday, models indicate the center of circulation of John will be just southwest of Cabo San Lucas then it will move northwest to a position several hundred miles west/southwest of San Diego. This hurricane will have to be watched as it moves into colder water and begins to unwind. Current models indicate the moisture from this storm will remain off shore, but if there are any changes this storm could possibly move into central California. Right now, we’ll follow model guidance for our forecast and assume this moisture will have little impact on central California.
Temperatures will moderate at least slightly over the weekend as a new low moves into the Pacific Northwest. However, the high will rebound Tuesday and beyond for more above average temperatures in what has become a miserable summer.
Forecast: Clear skies and hot conditions through Wednesday night. Mostly clear Thursday through Saturday with occasional high cloudiness and continued hot. Mostly clear Saturday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 99/63/102/67/104 | Reedley 100/64/102/67/104 | Dinuba 99/63/100/66/103 | |
| Porterville 100/64/102/66/103 | Lindsay 99/63/102/67/104 | Delano 101/67/102/70/104 | |
| Bakersfield 99/73/103/76/105 | Arvin 101/70/103/73/105 | Taft 100/75/102/79/104 | |
| Lamont 101/69/103/74/105 | Pixley 99/64/102/68/104` | Tulare 99/63/102/67/103 | |
| Woodlake 100/63/102/68/104 | Hanford 101/65/103/68/105 | Orosi 99/63/102/67/103 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 71/105 |
Friday
Mostly clear 70/104 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 69/103 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 67/101 |
Monday
Mostly clear 67/99 |
Two Week Outlook: August 11 through August 17: This model indicates temperatures will be a bit less hot than previously projected. The persistent upper high will shift into the Four Corners region, possibly lowering temperatures to near to marginally above average. There also seems to be a reasonable chance of monsoon moisture moving in from the southeast for a chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra and possibly partly cloudy skies at times over the valley floor.
August: If you were hoping for relief from this relentlessly hot summer, this model does not show a pattern that would give you that relief. In fact, upper level high pressure which has been so persistent this summer is the dominant feature, resulting in above average temperatures. Also, the monsoon may be more active than in most summers, so occasional thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra Nevada and possibly occasional periods of partly cloudy skies over the valley floor. Otherwise, the usual generally dry weather will continue.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will continue to be pretty dominant over the next three months with occasional bouts of monsoonal moisture affecting the Sierra Nevada through about mid September. Overall, temperatures will remain generally above seasonal averages with generally below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings through Thursday.
Rain: The chance of dry weather continuing indefinitely is very high, however Hurricane John will be just to the southwest of Cabo San Lucas by Wednesday then will move northwestward and weaken. It will be somewhat southwest of San Diego by Friday. As this system unwinds and dies, its moisture will more than likely stay off shore, but if there is a deviation in the position of high pressure covering the west, this could change. For now, I’ll go with a dry forecast, but certainly will be monitoring the situation.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 15%/65% Bakersfield: 15%/45%
Actual Humidity August 5, 2018: Delano, 82%/22%, Porterville, 77%/15%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.11, Parlier 2.05, Blackwell 2.11, Lindcove 1.84, Arvin 2.24, Orange Cove 2.11, Porterville 1.79, Delano 1.88, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 82, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 80, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 85, Delano 81, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 110/54. Average Temperatures: 99/66
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1338 +347. Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for August so far, 82.8 +3.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:10 am Sunset: 7:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:49
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 97 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 99 / 67 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 59 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 98 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 98 / 69 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 59 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 97 / 60 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 97 / 74 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 112 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 62 9.18 189 4.87 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 130 12.46 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.79 13.95
Next report: August 7