December 1, 2018
Summary: The cold frontal portion of the current storm is moving fairly rapidly southeastward through the valley this afternoon. Generally light showers are reaching into Kings and Tulare Counties and will move into Kern County over the next couple of hours. Doppler radar from Merced north indicates only a few radar returns, indicating the bulk of this system will end by later this evening with the exception of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains where precipitation will continue into Sunday morning with snow down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet possible.
A temporary ridge of high pressure will begin to fill in from the west Sunday through Monday for dry weather and increasing amounts of night and morning fog beginning Monday and Tuesday mornings. During the day Tuesday, mid and high level clouds will be on the increase ahead of a northeast Pacific low pressure system which, if models are correct, should be about 200 to 300 miles west of the central coast by Wednesday morning. Let’s hope this is the case as the low would be close enough to rotate bands of rain over the valley anytime from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. This system will then move southeastward parallel to the coast then open up into a weaker trough as it moves through southern California and northern Baja Thursday night and Friday.
Models continue to look dry for Friday through Monday. I would anticipate increasing amounts of night and morning fog possibly lasting through the day for the weekend and into next Monday. Some models indicate a powerful low will hit the Pacific Northwest and northern California about Tuesday or Wednesday of the following week. The jet stream would be flanked right under that low and into central California which could produce another significant rain and snow event.
The new two week outlook for the ninth through the fifteenth still shows northern and central California in the rainfall bulls eye.
Forecast: Light showers likely through this evening, tapering off about 10:00pm or so with a slight chance of lingering showers over the foothills later tonight and Sunday morning. A brisk northwest flow aloft will continue Sunday which should regenerate upslope clouds along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday afternoon through midday Monday. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Monday night with areas of fog and low clouds developing after midnight. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday leading to a small chance of showers by late Tuesday night. Periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/52/31/53 | Reedley 34/53/32/53 | Dinuba 32/51/31/52 | |
| Porterville 34/53/32/53 | Lindsay 32/52/31/53 | Delano 36/52/33/54 | |
| Bakersfield 43/53/36/56 | Taft 41/52/39/55 | Arvin 39/51/34/56 | |
| Lamont 38/52/35/53 | Pixley 35/53/32/53 | Tulare 33/51/32/53 | |
| Woodlake 35/52/32/52 | Hanford 35/53/32/53 | Orosi 33/52/31/54 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH through this evening then will be out of the northwest later tonight and for a time Sunday morning at 5 to 15 MPH. Winds Sunday afternoon through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. I do want to make this note for Wednesday, a low pressure system both at the surface and aloft may end up a few hundred miles to our west/northwest Wednesday. This could create an east/southeast flow which typically is no big deal other than in portions of Kern County which could see some gusty east to southeast winds Wednesday and Wednesday evening. For now, this doesn’t look like a significant event, but one worth watching.
Rain: A band of mostly light showers is moving down the valley this afternoon. Light showers are fairly widespread from northern Tulare and Kings Counties northward to Madera County and will be spreading into Kern County over the next few hours. Doppler radar indicates only isolated showers from Merced County northward so the bulk of this event will be over by later this evening. Any lingering showers will be confined to the mountain areas later tonight and Sunday morning, but for the valley, expect dry weather Sunday through at least Tuesday morning. There will be a small chance of showers later Tuesday night then expect periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday morning. For now, the period of Thursday afternoon through Monday of the following week appears dry, however there is some model information of a strong low about a week from Tuesday with precipitation spreading into central California.
Frost Discussion: Dew points this afternoon are running in the low to mid 40s. a cold front is currently moving down the valley and will be southeast of our region by late evening, bringing any shower activity to an end. It’s possible that, in areas where it clears, riverbottom and similar locations could dip to 29 to 31 for brief durations, however I do anticipate the regeneration of upslope clouds along the mountains to the east and south. This should provide mostly cloudy conditions for the eastern and southern flanks of the valley through Sunday morning. It’s possible portions of Kern County could stay in the low 40s.
Monday morning will see the best chance of local frost as a temporary ridge builds overhead, stabilizing the atmosphere. There may be a combination of residual cloud cover and fog and low clouds Monday morning, maintaining generally low to mid 30s, however there is the potential unprotected locations could drop into the 28 to 30 degree range for short periods of time. That same rule of thumb applies to Tuesday morning, as well. More rain will spread in from the west later Tuesday night through Thursday morning. After this system moves southeastward, a west/northwest flow will move into California, effectively cutting off any cold air masses for the remainder of next week and into the following week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Sunday morning/December 2