January 10, 2019
Summary: No sooner did yesterday’s storm move off to the east than widespread fog and low clouds moved into the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. The fog layer is dense enough for clearing to be at a premium this afternoon. Bakersfield, Hanford, Visalia, and Fresno are all reporting a visibility at or less than .25 of a mile.
The next low pressure system to deal with will begin to spread precipitation over the coastal mountains possibly as early as late Friday afternoon. This system and the one to follow, for that matter, will be a difficult call. Some models are still holding onto the idea of the low staying too far off shore to allow decent precipitation to spread over the valley. The best chance of precipitation tomorrow night and early Saturday will be along the west side of the valley and possibly over the valley portion of Kern County. The low will eventually weaken and move through southern California late Friday night and Saturday. Upstream from this system will be the next in the parade. Just like the storm I just mentioned, this one may temporarily be too far off shore to spread precipitation rapidly inland later Sunday through Monday. This storm may actually be off the central coast for 48 to 72 hours before finally moving inland, possibly between San Francisco and Santa Barbara, Tuesday and Tuesday night.
there will also be two chances of gusty winds over portions of the valley region of Kern County. The first will be later Friday afternoon and Friday night and the second later Sunday and Sunday night. the Sunday chance is greater as a reasonably strong surface low approaches from the west, increasing pressure differences from the high desert to off the central coast. It’s possible gusty east to southeast winds could begin, increasing to possibly 40 to 50 MPH near the base of the Kern County mountains and the extreme southern Sierra Nevada. If this begins at all, it could be with us for a while due to the slow progress of the storm itself.
From Wednesday through Friday of next week, precipitation could occur at any time, depending on the arrival and evolution of storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California.
Forecast: Fog and/or low overcast this morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon with areas of clearing. Areas of fog and/or low clouds reforming tonight and into Friday morning with increasing higher clouds Friday. Rain will be likely along the west side of the valley Friday night with a chance of rain elsewhere. A chance of rain, mainly along the west side of the valley, Saturday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a chance of rain Sunday and Sunday night, mainly along the west side. Rain likely at times Monday through Tuesday. A chance of rain at times Tuesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/48/62/48/60 | Reedley 59/47/62/47/61 | Dinuba 59/46/62/47/59 | |
| Porterville 60/43/63/47/62 | Lindsay 60/45/62/45/60 | Delano 61/47/62/48/62 | |
| Bakersfield 61/47/70/51/63 | Taft 61/49/67/51/62 | Arvin 61/46/69/50/63 | |
| Lamont 60/46/69/51/62 | Pixley 60/45/62/48/62 | Tulare 59/44/62/47/60 | |
| Woodlake 60/44/62/47/60 | Hanford 61/44/62/48/61 | Orosi 61/43/62/47/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
PM rain possible 46/61 |
Monday
Periods of rain 48/61 |
Tuesday
Periods of rain 47/60 |
Wednesday
Periods of rain 47/63 |
Thursday
Chance of rain 43/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 17 through January 23: This model continues to indicate above average precipitation during this period, especially over the southern half of California and the Desert Southwest. Generally speaking, the flow aloft during this period will be out of the west or southwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Wind today and tonight will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday afternoon and night will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH. Over the valley portion of Kern County, there is a chance of localized gusty east to southeast winds, mainly along the southern lip of the valley. If this occurs, it would be a short lived event, possibly lasting into early Saturday morning. Winds could gust as high as 40 MPH in localized regions. There will be a stronger risk of strong, gusty winds in the above mentioned areas Sunday afternoon and night. winds out of the east to southeast, gusting to possibly in excess of 50 MPH are possible Sunday afternoon and night. the fact that there is a reasonably strong surface low which is a very slow mover could mean these winds last through Monday. As per usual with these types of situations, the players would have to set up perfectly for this to occur. I would say the chance of these winds developing is about 30% to 40% or so. Elsewhere, Sunday afternoon through Monday, winds will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.
Rain: Dry weather, if you want to call a lot of fog and clouds dry, will continue through Friday morning. Rain may encroach on the west side of the valley late Friday afternoon. The key to this storm will be trying to determine how far east the rain shield will progress. Some models continue to show it moving just over the coast ranges and possibly out over the far west side of the valley with the chance of rain diminishing the farther east you go. The chance of rain from this storm should be over by about midday Saturday then we’ll have the next storm which will follow roughly the same path. This one may also have difficulty initially in spreading precipitation inland. The chance of rain will again increase Sunday afternoon and theoretically become likely Sunday night and at times through Tuesday. Due to the slow movement of this storm, decent rainfall amounts are possible, however, there are strong differences in pressure which will spawn strong, gusty winds which, in turn, could spawn rainshadows, reducing precipitation amounts. If all of this sounds like a mess, it is. For now, the best I can do is tweak each forecast as we go along. There will be more waves of low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and towards central California from midweek and beyond. It’s virtually impossible to determine the timing of each system as they evolve and race southeastward towards the California coast.
Frost Discussion: Continued above freezing weather through next week. Just a bleep here that one model this morning was showing the development of a pattern similar to the one we had earlier in the month that resulted in widespread mid to upper 20s. definitely not in the forecast but something I will watch.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/100%, Bakersfield: 55%/90%
Actual Humidity January 9, 2019: Delano, 100%/69% Porterville, 97%/74%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .25, Parlier .28, Blackwell .38, Lindcove .26, Arvin .49, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .27, Delano .33 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 49, Delano 47
Record Temperatures: 68/18. Average Temperatures: 54/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 982 -339
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 47.2 3.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 3.34 season. or -.77, Month to Date: 1.01 +.37
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.57, or -.72. Month to Date: .16 -.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 473, Parlier, 499 , Arvin, 422 Shafter, 519 Stratford, 481, Delano 494, Lindcove, 699, Porterville, 919
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 5:02 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:48`
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 56 / 0.14 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 51 / 0.11 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 45 / 0.21 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 45 / 0.16 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 51 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 58 / 46 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1558 / 58 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 43 / 0.14 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 62 / 49 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 48 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.09 7.01 128 3.52 64 5.48 14.06
MODESTO T 4.97 104 3.25 68 4.79 13.11
MERCED 0.02 4.83 108 1.99 45 4.46 12.50
MADERA 0.14 3.68 79 1.31 28 4.68 12.02
FRESNO 0.12 3.31 81 1.23 30 4.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.21 2.60 65 1.68 42 3.98 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.04 1.50 66 0.88 38 2.29 6.47
BISHOP T 1.58 79 0.20 10 1.99 5.18
SALINAS T 5.08 110 2.13 46 4.62 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.32 4.75 107 2.16 49 4.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.22 3.98 83 1.95 41 4.80 13.95
Next report: Thursday afternoon, January 10