May 4, 2019
Summary: We have another 24 hours of generally clear skies and above average temperatures. Currently, we’re on the back side of upper level high pressure over the western states. Already, however, there are small inklings of changes afoot. The marine layer at the naval installation at Monterey yesterday was 500 feet. This morning, the marine layer has deepened to 1,900 feet. A closed low roughly 500 miles west of the central coast is chugging eastward and will be less than 100 miles off shore by Sunday afternoon. The counterclockwise motion around the low will begin to develop scattered light showers over the mountains surrounding the valley by Sunday evening. By midday Monday, the center of circulation is projected by some models to be just about right overhead. Even though most of the precipitation from this event will be over the mountains, there is a chance of scattered light showers over the valley floor from Sunday evening through Monday evening. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon and evening as a pool of relatively cold, unstable air moves in overhead.
By Tuesday morning, the low will again be on the move and will be centered over northern Arizona, allowing dry weather to temporarily return. The pattern from late Wednesday through Saturday is an interesting one. A trough of low pressure over the interior west will form a new low pressure center along the southwest flank of the trough, possibly over central or southern California. If the central California version occurs, a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms will reenter the picture as early as late Wednesday night with the possibility of unsettled weather through Saturday. As you might imagine, temperatures will be below average this upcoming week.
A ridge of upper level high pressure will begin to build in from by the west by next Sunday, dominating the pattern through a week from Tuesday. Beyond that, a trough if low pressure will be more dominant, but it’s much too early to tell if precipitation will reenter the forecast.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight. Increasing cloudiness Sunday with a small chance of light showers beginning at midafternoon. Variable cloudiness Sunday night through Monday night with a chance of scattered light showers. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. Variable cloudiness Wednesday night through Saturday with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially in the afternoons and evenings.
Short Term:
| Madera 87/51/76/50/71 | Reedley 87/52/77/51/72 | Dinuba 86/51/76/50/71 | |
| Porterville 88/52/77/52/72 | Lindsay 87/51/77/51/71 | Delano 88/53/77/52/72 | |
| Bakersfield 89/58/76/54/72 | Taft 89/60/76/55/71 | Arvin 90/56/76/55/72 | |
| Lamont 90/56/74/54/70 | Pixley 87/54/74/53/71 | Tulare 86/51/76/52/71 | |
| Woodlake 87/51/77/51/72 | Hanford 87/52/78/52/72 | Orosi 86/51/76/51/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 54/77 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 54/79 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 57/77 |
Friday
Chance of showers 53/75 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 48/74 |
Two Week Outlook: May 11 through May 17: Models indicate a broad trough of low pressure will be fairly dominant during this time frame, resulting in at least marginally below average temperatures. The chance for rain during this time frame would be greater than average, especially along the Sierra Nevada, but it cannot be ruled out over the valley floor.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds today will be generally at or less than 15 MPH. However, by late this afternoon, locally gusty winds out of the west to southwest may begin near the base of the passes along the west side of the valley. Winds tonight and at times through Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with local gusts to 30 possible, mainly along the west side.
Rain: Models show the center of a low pressure system right along the central coast by late Sunday afternoon. As a result, the chance of showers over the mountain areas will increase Sunday afternoon. From Sunday night through Monday night, there will be a chance of scattered light showers over the valley floor. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon and evening as the low is projected to be right overhead. The chance of rain will decrease Monday night with dry weather Tuesday through Wednesday. Rain fall amounts will vary widely with this system, but generally will add up to no more than .10. like with any storm event, there will be exceptions as isolated thunderstorms are a possibility Monday afternoon and evening. If, by chance, your location is nailed by one of these cells, a quick .25 to .33 is possible. From Thursday through Saturday, there is the potential for unsettled conditions. Models vary considerably on the placement of a new developing low. Some models show it right over central California by Thursday while others place it further south over southern California. If the first solution is correct, the chance for scattered showers will increase Thursday and with very slow movement of this storm, the chance of measurable rain will continue through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible with this event.
Dry weather will return next Sunday and will last through at least the following Wednesday.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/60%
Actual Humidity May 3, 2019: Delano, 88%/20% Porterville, 84%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.74, Parlier 1.59, Blackwell 1.74, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.67, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.54, Delano 1.62. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 68, Blackwell 72, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 73, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 100/37. Average Temperatures: 81/52
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 93 +52
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 66.0 +0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.27. Month to Date: .00 -.07
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.00, or -.12. Month to Date: .00 -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:01 am Sunset: 7:51 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 89 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 88 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 86 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 85 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 76 / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 86 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 85 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 119 9.09 69 13.22 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 99 8.00 66 12.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 103 6.91 60 11.58 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 88 7.22 65 11.14 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.47 88 6.73 63 10.74 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 82 4.70 50 9.38 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.00 98 3.93 64 6.12 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 174 1.22 28 4.33 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.31 101 7.13 58 12.24 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.11 116 9.62 79 12.21 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.77 110 6.01 45 13.47 13.95
Next report: Tuesday morning/May 5