August 13, 2019
Summary: The main center of upper level high pressure which for the past several days was located over Texas has shifted westward and will be centered over southern New Mexico and southern Arizona by Wednesday. as this high shifts farther west, pressures will rise aloft, warming the upper atmosphere where freezing levels have risen to nearly 16,000 feet. With high pressure comes a downward motion of the atmosphere which has crushed the marine layer down to 800 feet at Monterey. Infrared satellite imagery this morning indicated very little fog and low clouds exist along the northern and central California coast.
The high’s position will block monsoonal moisture from working its way north, so virtually cloudless skies are expected to continue. The main impact of the westward shift of the high will be hot temperatures as warmer locations will move into the lower triple digits this afternoon with readings possibly as high as 107 or 108 in the hottest locations Thursday and possibly Friday.
Fortunately, this time around, humidity values will generally be in the 15% to 20% range, so humidity will not add to the discomfort level.
Models for the weekend show the high shifting further east again, eventually settling over New Mexico and Texas. Meanwhile, a weak low center will approach the northern California coast, effectively deepening the marine layer enough to allow some modified sea breeze down the valley. We could be back into the mid 90s as early as Saturday afternoon, continuing in that range through Monday. The back and forth motion of that high will shift backwards again in our direction by Tuesday. This could lead to the next round of triple digits by the middle of next week.
Both the short and medium range models indicate generally a southwesterly flow aloft, meaning the monsoon will reman south and east of central California.
Forecast: Clear skies and hot conditions through Friday. Mostly clear and cooler Saturday through Monday. Mostly clear with a warming trend Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 99/64/104/67/106 | Reedley 101/65/104/67/105 | Dinuba 99/64/102/66/104 |
| Porterville 100/64/103/66/106 | Lindsay 100/63/103/65/105 | Delano 101/66/104/68/106 |
| Bakersfield 101/72/104/75/107 | Taft 100/75/104/78/107 | Arvin 101/67/105/68/108 |
| Lamont 100/68/104/71/107 | Pixley 100/65/104/67/106 | Tulare 99/64/103/67/105 |
| Woodlake 99/63/103/65/105 | Hanford 100/65/104/68/106 | Orosi 99/63/103/67/104 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 68/105 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 62/96 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 58/93 |
Monday
Mostly clear 59/94 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 63/98 |
Two Week Outlook: August 20 through August 26: Upper level high pressure will be persistent over the Desert Southwest and California. Generally speaking, a dry, southwesterly flow will continue but it is possible the monsoon could affect the Sierra Nevada later in the period. Temperatures will remain above average.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings through Friday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally 5 to 12 MPH with possible periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/60% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/50%
Actual Humidity range August 12, 2019: Delano, 79%/28% Porterville, 61%/13%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.85, Parlier 1.87, Blackwell 1.93, Arvin 2.01, Orange Cove 2.03, Porterville 1.92, Delano 1.87. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 80, Blackwell 90, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 91, Delano 83
Record Temperatures: 112/53. Average Temperatures: 98/64
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1338 +249
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for August so far: 81.5 +2.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.00
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.44. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:15 am Sunset: 7:51 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 95 / 58 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 95 / 68 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DHM / 96 / 59 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 94 / 68 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 60 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 92 / 70 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 94 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.36 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 173 3.02 62 4.90 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 119 9.62 77 12.48 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.79 13.95
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Next report: Wednesday, August 14