August 15, 2019
Summary: A very warm and dry air mass covers the southwestern U.S. and California. The freezing level remains right at 16,000 feet above Vandenberg while the marine layer stands at only 500 feet deep. In fact, at last report, winds at Traverse Air Force Base were dead calm. The center of circulation of strong upper level high pressure is over Arizona and southern California. Intense heat remains over the deserts of southern California where highs this afternoon will approach 120 degrees over the lower deserts. The valley will be no bargain either as hottest locations, especially in Kern County, will be near the 110 degree mark both today and Friday.
The high will begin to drift southwestward and will end up west of the Baja coastline Saturday through Monday. This will allow a weak trough of low pressure to penetrate southward from western Canada and into the interior western United States. As a result, pressures will weaken above central California. The marine layer will deepen and will once again be able to penetrate through the Delta and move down the valley, lowering temperatures into the mid 90s Sunday and Monday.
By Tuesday, yet another strong high center will develop over the Four Corners region for more intense heat over the Desert Southwest. For now, it doesn’t appear central California will come close to the current heat wave, but will rather end up in the lower 100s by mid week.
The monsoon will continue to be well to the east and south of central California for generally clear skies for the next week to possibly ten days.
Forecast: Clear skies and hot conditions through Friday. Clear and a cooling trend Saturday through Monday. Mostly clear and becoming hot again Tuesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 105/67/104/66/97 | Reedley 107/67/106/66/99 | Dinuba 106/67/105/64/99 |
| Porterville 107/67/106/65/99 | Lindsay 107/66/106/65/99 | Delano 108/70/107/68/100 |
| Bakersfield 108/77/106/74/101 | Taft 107/79/106/76/100 | Arvin 110/74/108/69/101 |
| Lamont 109/74/107/70/101 | Pixley 107/68/106/64/100 | Tulare 107/67/105/64/99 |
| Woodlake 107/66/105/65/99 | Hanford 108/68/106/64/99 | Orosi 106/66/105/64/99 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 59/94 |
Monday
Mostly clear 58/93 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 62/97 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 64/101 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 65/102 |
Two Week Outlook: August 22 through August 28: Upper level high pressure will be persistent over the Desert Southwest and California. Generally speaking, a dry, southwesterly flow will continue but it is possible the monsoon could affect the Sierra Nevada later in the period. Temperatures will remain above average.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through Friday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings. Winds Saturday through Sunday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 15%/55% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/40%
Actual Humidity range August 14, 2019: Delano, 82%/22% Porterville, 59%/10%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.85, Parlier 1.84, Blackwell 1.88, Arvin 2.02, Orange Cove 2.01, Porterville 1.89, Delano 1.82. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 79, Blackwell 89, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 90, Delano 81
Record Temperatures: 109/53. Average Temperatures: 97/64
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1374 +257
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for August so far: 81.7 +2.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.00
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.44. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:17 am Sunset: 7:49 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 103 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 105 / 73 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 105 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 104 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / NA / 64 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 102 / M / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 101 / 69 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.36 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 173 3.02 62 4.90 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 119 9.62 77 12.48 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.79 13.95
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Next report: Friday, August 16