January 5, 2020
Summary: As of 1:00pm, low clouds were extensive along the eastern and southern flanks of the San Joaquin Valley while the west side north of Kern County had cleared out. Temperatures where the low overcast is prevalent are only in the low to mid 40s this afternoon. The base of the overcast at Fresno and Bakersfield was 700 feet. Porterville and Visalia were reporting the base of the overcast at 300 feet. Temperatures are running anywhere from 8 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.
The latest wave of low pressure has moved through the Pacific Northwest and is already moving through Idaho and Utah. Surface high pressure will quickly develop behind this system over the Great Basin, resulting in the next off shore flow tonight through Monday.
In the meantime, at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will move through Monday through Tuesday. Where it clears tonight, ground fog will form in many areas. Clearing will occur in some areas Monday and again Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures both for overnight lows and daytime highs will large be affected by the scope of the fog and low clouds and where it decides to clear.
The high will quickly shift eastward Tuesday night as the next trough of low pressure moves through the Pacific Northwest and, to a lesser extent, northern and central California Wednesday. any precipitation will likely remain north of a Bay Area/Tahoe line.
After Wednesday, the eastern Pacific high will shift a bit further off shore, creating a northwest flow over California. The storm track will remain to our north through at least late Friday night through Sunday when a stronger trough of low pressure moves through. Even with the stronger trough, the dynamics for central California appear pretty weak so only a small chance of light showers exists, mainly from Fresno County north.
After the weekend, a cool northwest flow will prevail as most models show the storm track moving out of the Gulf of Alaska then through the Pacific Northwest and from there into the interior west with little chance of rain for the southern 2/3 of California.
Forecast: Low overcast for much of the night over Kern and Tulare Counties with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Becoming mostly clear Monday through Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Tuesday night. variable cloudiness at times Wednesday through Friday. Mostly cloudy Friday night through Sunday with a small chance of light showers Friday night through Sunday, mainly from Fresno County north.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/55/31/57 | Reedley 33/56/33/58 | Dinuba 31/55/32/57 | |
| Porterville 34/57/33/58 | Lindsay 32/56/31/58 | Delano 35/56/33/59 | |
| Bakersfield 40/58/37/62 | Taft 40/60/39/62 | Arvin 39/58/35/62 | |
| Lamont 39/59/35/63 | Pixley 33/58/32/58 | Tulare 32/55/32/56 | |
| Woodlake 32/56/32/57 | Hanford 34/55/34/57 | Orosi 31/56/32/58 | |
Winds: Winds this evening will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH, diminishing later this evening. Winds later tonight through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The next chance of rain, which appears small, will arrive late Friday night and continue through Sunday. The main thrust of the storm track during that time frame will be through the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern 1/3 of California. There’s a reasonably high chance we will remain dry, however there is enough model disparity to add a low chance of light showers to the forecast from mainly Fresno County northward. For now, there’s no real signature that would move the storm track back to the south through at least the middle of next week.
Frost Discussion: Considerable amounts of low clouds remain over the eastern and southern flanks of the valley, mainly in Tulare and Kern Counties while skies have generally cleared out over the west side of the valley north of Kern County. High resolution short term models show the low overcast remaining over Tulare and Kern Counties tonight. If this occurs, above freezing conditions will prevail.
For tonight’s forecast, I will indicate low 30s in colder locations just in case that drier air moving into northern California infiltrates the valley enough for clearing during the early morning hours. At any rate, with dew points in the mid 40s this afternoon, only the coldest river bottom and like locations will drop down to 30 to 31 or so with the greatest risk of that occurring being in Madera and Fresno Counties. A few more locations may dip at or slightly below freezing Tuesday morning, but we’ll have to study fog and low cloud patterns during the next 36 hours to tweak that forecast, as well.
For Wednesday and the remainder of the week, above freezing conditions will prevail as we anticipate variable amounts of cloud cover from time to time with a relatively mild north/northwest flow aloft. Models this afternoon continue the trend that began on models this morning of a northwest flow during the second half of next weekend and well into next week. This will continue to dam up cold arctic air masses into Alaska and Canada which, if you haven’t heard, are experiencing a very cold winter thus far, even by their standards.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
33 |
Mcfarland
33 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
33 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
33 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: January 6/am