trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 14, 2020
Summary: Clouds are advancing southward through the valley this afternoon. These are upslope clouds from a northwesterly flow of air behind a system that moved through during the early morning hours. The base of the overcast was 3,200 feet at Visalia, 3,600 feet at Lemoore, and 3.900 feet above Fresno and Madera. Clouds will begin to rapidly bank up against the Kern County mountains and the foothills of Tulare County by this evening.
A fast moving ridge of high pressure will be overhead later tonight and Wednesday then a low pressure system currently in the Gulf of Alaska will move south/southeast to a position off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. From there, it will quickly intensify Wednesday night. the associated cold front and trough of low pressure will move through the valley Thursday through Thursday evening. This system will be moving fast as all the models show it moving into the Great Basin Friday with just lingering showers along the Sierra Nevada foothills and over the Kern County mountains.
Over the weekend, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will stretch from the eastern Pacific across central and southern California. Weak disturbances will move over the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest as well as northern California from time to time. One system on Sunday and another Tuesday could spread light showers down to a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line, however models are pretty consistent in projecting dry weather for our neck of the woods.
From next Wednesday on, more systems will move into Washington and Oregon for a continued dry weather pattern for central California.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties for much of the night and into Wednesday morning. the remainder of the valley will be partly cloudy with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon and evening. Increasing cloudiness later Wednesday night with a chance of showers before sunrise. Rain likely at times Thursday. Showers Thursday night. mostly to partly cloudy Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Saturday through Tuesday with widespread night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/54/38/55 | Reedley 32/55/38/55 | Dinuba 31/54/37/54 | |
| Porterville 31/56/38/57 | Lindsay 30/54/38/56 | Delano 32/56/38/58 | |
| Bakersfield 40/57/41/60 | Taft 41/57/40/59 | Arvin 34/57/39/60 | |
| Lamont 34/57/39/59 | Pixley 31/55/38/56 | Tulare 30/54/38/54 | |
| Woodlake 31/55/37/55 | Hanford 33/55/39/56 | Orosi 31/54/38/55 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH tonight through Wednesday with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday night will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH Thursday morning. later Thursday afternoon and night, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, decreasing after midnight. Winds Friday will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH.
Rain: There is a chance rain could arrive before sunrise Thursday morning, however the main event will be during the day Thursday into Thursday evening as a fast moving cold front moves through. Most, if not all, the showers will be over by Friday morning as this system steamrolls into the Great Basin. I’ll stick with the estimate of .25 to .50 generally east of Hwy 99 and north of Kern County, about .25 around the west side of Fresno and Kings counties, and less than .25 over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will set up again beginning Friday, will continue through the weekend, and, if models are accurate, will last for all next week.
Frost Discussion: Upslope clouds are rapidly developing along the Sierra Nevada foothills from Tulare county north and will begin to bank up against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains later this afternoon and tonight. this is due to a northwest push of air down the valley following a dry frontal passage earlier today. These clouds may last for the duration of the night and into Wednesday morning, especially in Tulare and Kern Counties. If this turns out to be the case, readings there would only fall into the mid to upper 30s. However, if drier air begins to mix out the cloud deck, widespread lower 30s are likely with upper 20s possible in unprotected low spots.
On Thursday morning, some locations may make it into the mid 30s before clouds begin to increase ahead of a rapidly advancing cold front. For now, it appears readings will remain above freezing. Expect above freezing conditions Friday morning due to heavy cloud cover.
The air mass following the cold front is similar to the current air mass, so low to mid 30s will be possible again beginning Saturday. with upper level high pressure taking over and moist soil on the valley floor, widespread fog and low clouds are certainly a distinct possibility for the weekend and on into next week. Overall, a westerly flow will continue in the upper atmosphere next week, blocking bitterly cold air up in Canada. One locations this morning in the Yukon Territory dropped to -65.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: January 15/morning