February 2, 2020
Summary: A pool of cold air is now penetrating central California. Temperatures in the lower Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys have dropped into the mid 50s while readings south of Merced are generally in the low to mid 60s. gusty northwesterly winds are moving down the valley. As of the time of this writing, winds were gusting between 20 and 30 MPH from Fresno County north and along the west side, but were still relatively light in Tulare and Kern Counties.
The latest freezing levels will not come out for another couple of hours, but it’s a given that they will be dropping rapidly. The general weather pattern shows high pressure along the Pacific coast ridging into southern Alaska with an intensifying low over Utah and southern Nevada, both at the surface and aloft. Steep differences in pressure between the Great Basin and the eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to generate strong, gusty winds tonight, especially along the west side. As these winds continue, dew points will steadily drop, probably settling in the low to mid 20s by Monday afternoon. Overnight lows tonight will be largely determined by wind conditions, but we’ll discuss that in detail in the frost summary below.
By late Monday night, the low will have moved into the Four Corners region while a north/south flow continues up and down the west coast and into California. Monday will be the coldest day as temperatures struggle to reach the 50 degree mark with only a few degrees of moderation Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be the coldest nighttime, something also discussed below.
By Wednesday night and Thursday morning, the low will be moving into the Midwest, allowing upper level high pressure to shift eastward into California, resulting in a much needed warming trend. Models still are aiming in the right direction as a low develops over the Pacific Northwest Saturday then drops into northern and central California Sunday. Since this system will be born overland and will take an overland trajectory into California, the moisture field around the low will be limited. At least it will offer a chance of light showers.
A second very cold low is projected to drop southward about the middle of next week which, on paper anyway, will offer a better chance at substantial precipitation.
Forecast: Becoming mostly clear tonight with the possible exception of southeastern Tulare and Kern Counties which may remain partly cloudy into Monday morning. mostly clear and cold Monday through Tuesday. Mostly clear and very cold Tuesday night. clear and cold Wednesday. mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday morning with a warming trend. Increasing cloudiness Saturday afternoon leading to a chance of light showers Saturday night and Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/50/26/52 | Reedley 30/50/26/51 | Dinuba 29/49/25/51 | |
| Porterville 31/50/26/52 | Lindsay 30/50/25/51 | Delano 31/51/26/51 | |
| Bakersfield 33/50/29/52 | Taft 36/49/30/53 | Arvin 33/49/26/52 | |
| Lamont 31/50/26/52 | Pixley 31/51/26/53 | Tulare 30/49/25/51 | |
| Woodlake 30/50/26/53 | Hanford 32/50/26/53 | Orosi 29/50/25/52 | |
Winds: Gusty northwesterly winds between 15 and 25 MPH through the late evening hours with gusts to 35 MPH possible, mainly along the west side and from Fresno County north. Winds will decrease after midnight to 8 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH along the west side. Winds Monday will decrease to around 5 to 12 MPH but will be 15 to 25 MPH along the west side. Winds Monday night through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: This is the fourth day in a row that models have shown a low forming over the Pacific Northwest Friday night and Saturday. this cold low is projected to move south into northern and central California Sunday night and Monday. The fact that it will take an overland trajectory as it moves southward means the moisture content will be limited. Even so, there will be a chance of light showers beginning later Saturday night and continuing through Monday. These same models have also been trending towards the development of a broad trough of cold low pressure along the west coast about the middle of next week for a higher risk of more substantial precipitation.
Frost Discussion: It has been interesting to observe what is going on just to our north. Strong gusty winds are blowing down the Sacramento Valley and the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley. Temperatures are a good 10 to 12 degrees cooler over the Sacramento Valley than they are over the southern half of the San Joaquin Valley. Dew points in the Sacramento Valley have fallen into the upper teens to the lower 20s but were still near 50 from Visalia southward. That should give you a good idea of things to come as that cold pool of air shifts southward over the remainder of central California this afternoon. Gusty north to northwest winds will continue tonight, driving in progressively colder and drier air.
Lows tonight at most locations will be determined by wind conditions. Where winds die off and skies are clear, coldest locations could drop down to 26 to 28 degrees in those historically cold locations and generally 29 to 33 degrees elsewhere.
The inversion tonight will be generally nonexistent.
Turning to Tuesday and Wednesday mornings: models have actually ratcheted down temperature potentials with possibly the very coldest locations down to 22 to 25 degrees and most flatland locations ranging from 25 to 29 degrees with hillsides, depending upon elevation, near 30 both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
The inversion Wednesday morning will be much better with temperatures at 34 feet 3 to 5 degrees warmer at most locations.
The air mass will begin to moderate Wednesday night and Thursday. However, coldest locations Thursday morning could still drop to 28 to 29 degrees with widespread lower 30s. Friday morning, some locations will be above freezing with the coldest locations around 30 degrees or so. The pattern will finally move in our favor over the weekend. In fact, a cold low will drop into California Saturday night through Monday with even a chance of light showers for above freezing conditions and possibly more active weather by the middle of next week. This would also keep temperatures acceptable.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
Mcfarland
28 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
31 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 3/morning