February 3, 2020
Summary: This summary will be a bit shorter than typical so I can concentrate on the freeze situation. A strong low both at the surface and aloft is centered over eastern Nevada and Utah this afternoon while upper level high pressure resides along the Pacific coast, creating a north/south pipeline of air at both the surface and aloft, thus the chilly temperatures. As of 1:00pm, most locations were only in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
The off shore high will begin to shift eastward over California Wednesday night and Thursday, ending the northerly flow and setting up a milder northwesterly flow. Daytime temperatures will be significantly warmer Thursday through Saturday with slowly moderating overnight low temperatures.
Over the weekend, a new low will develop over western Canada. It will drop into northern California Sunday and into central California Sunday night and Monday. This system will be similar in some ways to the one that barreled through yesterday with a minimal chance of light showers, and even though primarily over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains.
Another Pacific storm will drop southward along the coast into northern and central California Wednesday and Thursday of next week. On paper, anyway, this system has a better chance of bringing measurable rain to the valley.
Forecast: Clear skies and continued chilly through Wednesday morning. clear and a bit warmer Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday with a slight chance of a few light showers Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 25/54/26/57 | Reedley 24/53/25/57 | Dinuba 23/52/24/56 | |
| Porterville 23/54/25/57 | Lindsay 23/54/24/56 | Delano 25/53/26/58 | |
| Bakersfield 29/55/30/58 | Taft 28/52/30/58 | Arvin 25/53/26/58 | |
| Lamont 25/54/26/58 | Pixley 23/53/24/57 | Tulare 22/53/24/56 | |
| Woodlake 24/54/25/57 | Hanford 26/55/27/58 | Orosi 23/53/24/56 | |
Winds: Winds along the west side of the valley will continue to be out of the north at 15 to 25 MPH through the early evening hours, becoming light after midnight. Elsewhere, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH this evening, becoming generally at or less than 7 MPH later tonight through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: There are two chance of rain over the next week and a half or so. The first is a slight chance of a few light showers Sunday night and Monday. This system shows up as moisture starved on models with its origins in western Canada, moving overland into northern and central California. There appears to be a greater opportunity for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday of next week as a storm skirts the Pacific Northwest then heads into California. This system will be at least partially overwater, so there’s a greater potential for picking up more moisture.
Frost Discussion: Mother Nature is sending me mixed signals this afternoon. Dew points range from the low 20s to the mid 30s. locations above 30 are right along the eastern side of Tulare and Kern Counties which have been wind protected today. From Fresno County north, and along the west side, dew points are down into the low to mid 20s. Gusty winds are still blowing down the west side of the valley with gusts to near 30 MPH at times. These winds will die off this evening and become light overnight.
As of 1:00pm, air temperatures were only in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. the potential for temperatures down to 22 to 23 degrees tonight is there in those unprotected dry river bottom type situations, and is quite high. Most flat land type locations will range between 23 and 26 degrees with hillsides coming in at 29 to 32.
The inversion tonight will be fairly weak but will firm up a bit just before sunrise with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 2 to 5 degrees warmer.
Coldest unprotected low lying spots tonight will reach 32 degrees by 9:00pm and 28 between 11:00pm and 1:00am. Temperatures will not rise above freezing until 8:30 to 9:00am Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday morning will be very similar.
There will be some modification of the air mass Thursday, especially during the day. Colder locations Thursday morning will range between 27 and 28 degrees with most flatland locations between 29 and 32. Coldest locations Friday morning will generally range between 29 and 32 with milder flatland locations slightly above freezing.
The very coldest locations by Saturday morning will drop into the lower 30s.
Cloud cover should keep temperatures above freezing Sunday and Monday. The projected air mass behind the Sunday/Monday storm will be quite cold, possibly leading to more below freezing conditions Tuesday morning, but that’s purely speculation at this point. Cloud cover and a chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday of next week will maintain above freezing conditions.
By the way, the new two week outlook this afternoon indicates an 80% chance of well below average temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
23 |
Porterville
23 |
Ivanhoe
22 |
Woodlake
23 |
| Strathmore
23 |
Mcfarland
24 |
Ducor
25 |
Tea Pot Dome
24 |
| Lindsay
23 |
Exeter
22 |
Famoso
25 |
Madera
25 |
| Belridge
23 |
Delano
25 |
North Bakersfield
26 |
Orosi
23 |
| Orange Cove
24 |
Lindcove
23 |
Lindcove Hillside
29 |
Sanger River Bottom
22 |
| Root Creek
22 |
Venice Hill
24 |
Rosedale
25 |
Jasmine
25 |
| Arvin
26 |
Lamont
26 |
Plainview
24 |
Mettler
27 |
| Edison
26 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
25 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
25 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 3/between 10:00 and 11:00pm