October 17, 2020
Summary: Surface pressure this morning is still off shore but is roughly half of what it was 24 hours ago. The key players is in the broad picture are upper level high pressure well off the northern California coast and a benign upper low located roughly 550 miles west of the southern California coast. The off shore flow will continue to slowly weaken over the next 24 hours then will become weakly onshore beginning Monday as the upper high retrogrades a bit further west of the Pacific coast. Temperatures for at least the first half of the upcoming week will continue to be above average but will finally drop below the 90 degree mark. The marine layer, which this morning is roughly 400 feet deep at Fort Ord will slowly begin to deepen and trickle through the Delta beginning Monday.
After Wednesday, a northwest to southeast flow over the Pacific Northwest will dive through the northern and central Rockies, weakening the high over California even more. Models vary regarding next Friday and beyond. Readings may finally return to average by next weekend. Keep in mind, average high temperatures are now in the upper 70s. even so, models continue to show what is basically a blocking pattern. Keep in mind, this was the driest summer ever over the Desert Southwest as the monsoon was essentially a no show. Temperatures over the southwestern sector of the country were the warmest on record, especially over Arizona and parts of southern California.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday. Mostly clear skies continuing Tuesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 92/52/91/50/87 | Reedley 93/52/91/51/88 | Dinuba 91/51/90/50/87 |
| Porterville 92/52/91/51/88 | Lindsay 92/51/91/50/88 | Delano 93/54/91/53/88 |
| Bakersfield 93/65/90/63/87 | Taft 92/68/90/65/87 | Arvin 93/56/91/54/89 |
| Lamont 93/56/91/54/88 | Pixley 93/52/91/51/88 | Tulare 91/51/91/50/87 |
| Woodlake 91/52/91/50/87 | Hanford 93/54/92/52/87 | Orosi 90/51/89/49/86 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 50/88 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 50/88 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 49/85 |
Friday
Mostly clear 48/82 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 47/77 |
Two Week Outlook: October 24 through October 30: Forecast models give almost no hope of any precipitation during this time frame. The old familiar pattern of strong upper level high pressure will continue over the western states. Expect temperatures to remain above average.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable through Tuesday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, it’s no surprise the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s)s for October 17, 2020:
Today’s air quality for Kings County is deemed moderate.
The air quality for the rest of the growing area is listed as unhealthy for sensitive groups except for Merced County where the air quality is considered good for today.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/37%, Porterville, 93%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.09, Parlier .91, Blackwell Corners .96, Arvin 1.09, Orange Cove .95, Porterville .77, Delano .89. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 70, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 75, Porterville 73, Delano 67
Record Temperatures: 97/36. Average Temperatures: 79/50
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -32
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 72.2 +5.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00, -.22 Month to Date: .00, -.22
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00, +or- -.10. Month to date .00 -.10
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 Sunset: 6:18 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:10
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 91 / 56 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 90 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1645 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 92 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 90 / 61 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 91 / 56 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1650 / 92 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 91 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 90 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.29 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.26 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.23 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.24 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.22 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.23 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.20 13.95
Next report: October 17, 2020