December 27, 2021
For much of the day, the west side of the valley, and especially Kern County, has been fighting a rain shadow. Precipitation has finally moved into Kern County. This storm is not quite as cold as expected. Tehachapi at 4,000 feet is reporting light rain and 37 degrees as of noon today. Further north, Madera, Fresno, and much of Tulare and Kings Counties now have just scattered showers. The colder sector of the storm is now arriving, so expect snow levels to drop to about 3,000 feet or so.
The next system will arrive late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The pool of air associated with this low is very cold with snow expected to be about at the 1,000-2,000 foot levesl in the surrounding mountains. There are still a couple of outlier models suggesting snow even reaching the valley floor. However, I’m not quite ready to make that call.
The last system in this series will move through later Thursday and Friday. Models show this one moving from western Canada southward along the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada then into the Desert Southwest on Saturday. Since this low will not move over water, it will be extremely cold, but will also be starved of moisture. Still, some snow flurries Thursday night and early Friday would not be a total shock.
Upper level high pressure will build in from the west over the weekend, sealing in a cold layer of air on the valley floor for chilly conditions. We’ll have to watch dew point behavior this coming weekend due to the dryness of that last system. The weather will remain dry through Tuesday then an active pattern will return for Wednesday through next weekend as a trough extends from the Gulf of Alaska to northern and central California.
Forecast: Scattered showers this evening with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Becoming mostly cloudy later tonight. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. Rain likely again late Tuesday afternoon and at times through Wednesday. A chance of showers Wednesday night. A chance of scattered light showers Thursday through Friday with a slight chance of snow flurries Thursday night and early Friday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/47/34/48 | Reedley 35/48/34/46 | Dinuba 34/45/35/48 |
| Porterville 35/48/35/47 | Lindsay 34/48/34/46 | Delano 35/47/34/48 |
| Bakersfield 37/47/35/48 | Taft 33/46/34/49 | Arvin 36/48/36/47 |
| Lamont 35/47/37/47 | Pixley 35/47/35/48 | Tulare 34/46/37/46 |
| Woodlake 33/47/34/47 | Hanford 35/48/36/48 | Orosi 33/45/35/46 |
Wind Discussion: Winds this evening wil be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH then will be out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH after midnight. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will periodically be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH along with periods of lighter winds.
Rain: The following are rainfall amounts from the current storm as of noon today. Fresno .23, Del Ray .30, Visalia .15, Exeter .11, Hanford .06, Tulare .09 and Porterville .04.
Rain is now tapering off into scattered showers which will continue into the evening hours. There’s even a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two. Expect dry weather this evening and through most of Tuesday. Rain will spread in from the northwest again late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. This will be a very cold system with snow down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet in the surrounding foothills. Typically, very cold storms do not carry much water so I don’t anticipate much more than .25 at any given location. There will be a chance of light showers Thursday through Friday. Any amounts with this system will be quite light. If there happens to be any shower activity Thursday night and early Friday morning, it’s possible a few snow flakes could reach the valley floor, but at this time we’ll file that in the slight chance category. Dry weather will return over the weekend and on through Tuesday. Models still indicate a trough will extend from the Gulf of Alaska all the way to southern California beginning January 4 and lasting for several days. This will be our next chance of active weather.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but at or slightly above in the coldest locations. Dew points remain high enough that, combined with cloud cover, will maintain temperatures in the 32 to 38 degree range tonight and tomorrow night. It’s possible that, if skies open up for any length of time Thursday and Friday mornings, lows could dip down to 29 to 34 degrees. I want to closely watch conditions for Saturday through Monday mornings. Some models show a moisture starved low originating in the Yukon territory diving southward along the Sierra Nevada late Friday and Friday night. This could, in theory, drive down dew points enough for mid to upper 20s depending on the system’s trajectory. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic and will forecast lows in the upper 20s to the mid 30s. I’ll make revisions as necessary. Models are still hinting at a cold, active pattern beginning the fourth and lasting for several days.
Next report: December 28