February 10, 2022
The midday observations indicate temperatures nearing the 70 degree mark on the valley floor. Porterville and Visalia were each reporting 66 degrees, Bakersfield 67, Madera 68, and Fresno 69. Obviously readings will be well into the 70s this afternoon. Strong, upper level high pressure is centered over northern California this afternoon and will move slowly southward over the next 72 hours. This will drive temperatures into record territory with warmest locations topping 80 degrees for the first time this year. Kern County will be the warmest as downslope heating is the most pronounced in that region. By Monday, the high will begin to weaken and shift eastward. On Monday, a low with origins in the Gulf of Alaska will be moving into the Pacific Northwest. Most models this afternoon place the center of circulation right over central California Tuesday. Even though this will not be a moisture laden event, there will be light scattered showers. If the pool of relatively cold, unstable air is still above us Tuesday afternoon, isolated thunderstorms with small hail cannot be ruled out. This system will pull off to the east Tuesday night and Wednesday, so it appears Tuesday during the day will be the best opportunity for rain. Beyond Tuesday, a massive ridge of upper level high pressure will build into the western US for the next period of prolonged dry weather.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. Scattered light showers Tuesday with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 38/76/41/79 | Reedley 37/77/41/78 | Dinuba 37/75/39/78 |
| Porterville 37/77/41/80 | Lindsay 36/76/41/80 | Delano 40/77/41/82 |
| Bakersfield 47/77/48/83 | Taft 53/75/54/79 | Arvin 40/78/41/82 |
| Lamont 41/78/42/81 | Pixley 37/77/40/80 | Tulare 37/75/39/78 |
| Woodlake 38/76/41/79 | Hanford 38/77/41/80 | Orosi 36/76/39/79 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Monday. Models indicate the center of circulation of a cold upper low will be right overhead Tuesday, accompanied by light, scattered showers. If this system plays its cards right, it could actually spawn a few isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor Tuesday afternoon and evening. In the weather business, occasionally timing is everything. In this case, if the pool of cold, unstable air is directly above us Tuesday afternoon, a few thunderstorms will be possible along with localized heavy rain and pea sized hail. Otherwise, most locations will range from nothing to upwards of a tenth of an inch. After this short interruption Tuesday, a prolonged period of dry weather will return Wednesday, lasting for at least the following week.
Frost: Expect overnight lows to be above freezing for the next 5 to 7 days.
Next report: February 11