November 7, 2022
As of the time of this writing, a cold front was draped from northeast to southwest. Rain ahead of the front had advanced as far south as Kings and Tulare Counties. Precipitation will move into Kern County shortly, however a rain shadow has developed along the west side and in Kern County, which is no surprise. the center of circulation of the cold core low is just west of southern Washington and is dropping slowly southward. The winds aloft wrapping around the bottom side of the low are perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada which will pick up generous amounts of rain and snow. The entire Sierra Nevada range at the highest elevations will pick up an impressive 4 to 6 feet of new snow all the way down to the Kern County line. Precipitation estimates for the valley have decreased somewhat. Even so, it appears anywhere from one to one and a half inches of precipitation is likely along the east side of the valley. More in the rainfall discussion below.
The center of circulation of this storm will be just west of San Francisco Tuesday. As the cold pool of air settles over the valley Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, isolated thunderstorms could develop, especially if there are breaks in the cloud deck allowing pockets of warm air to move skyward and interact with the cooler air above. This monster storm will finally move eastward by Wednesday evening with dry weather later Wednesday night through Thursday.
Models are depicting a weak low moving into northern California Saturday for a small chance of light showers as far south as Merced County and possibly a second system which also appears to be very weak around Monday of next week. but again, most of the active weather will remain to our north.
The air mass behind the current storm is quite cold with frost becoming likely in some areas Thursday and Friday and possibly Saturday, depending upon cloud cover.
Forecast: Periods of rain today and tonight. Rain Tuesday morning with numerous showers tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. There is a chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy later Wednesday night and Thursday but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and much of Tulare County through Thursday. Mostly clear Friday and Friday night. Variable cloudiness at times Saturday through Tuesday with a chance of light showers, mainly from Merced northward Saturday through Saturday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/47/60/43/57 | Reedley 61/47/61/44/58 | Dinuba 60/46/60/44/58 |
| Porterville 63/46/61/43/57 | Lindsay 62/45/61/45/57 | Delano 63/48/63/43/58 |
| Bakersfield 63/51/64/47/57 | Taft 63/51/63/48/57 | Arvin 64/48/62/44/57 |
| Lamont 63/48/61/44/57 | Pixley 61/47/61/43/57 | Tulare 60/43/61/43/58 |
| Woodlake 61/45/61/44/57 | Hanford 62/47/61/43/58 | Orosi 60/43/61/43/58 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 33/57 |
Friday
Mostly clear 33/58 |
Saturday
Mostly cloudy 35/61 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 39/63 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 42/64 |
Two Week Outlook: November 14 through November 20: This model shows a rather chilly northwest flow into California, maintaining below average temperatures. It also indicates above average precipitation over the northern half of California and doesn’t rule out a chance of showers further south.
November: Both the 30 and 90 day projections indicate a swath of below average rainfall from southern California eastward to Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Much of northern California is projected to have near average rainfall. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.
November, December, January: The 90 day model also projects lower than average precipitation from southern California through Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Northern and north/central California are projected to have near average precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast this morning at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds tonight through Wednesday will be variable at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts near showers. Winds Thursday will decrease to 5 to 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, precipitation had advanced as far south as northern Kings and Tulare Counties. Doppler radar shows a rain shadow along the west side and in Kern County, which is no surprise. As the cold front marches southward, so will the precipitation, encompassing the entire valley by a little later this morning. It does appear there will be a lull in the action tonight before the next surge of energy spreads more rain over the valley Tuesday morning as a pool of cold unstable air moves over the valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Numerous showers will develop. If there are breaks in the overcast Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon, it may be enough for isolated thunderstorms which will produce locally heavy rain and possibly small hail. All this action will end by Wednesday evening with dry weather Thursday through Friday night. A much weaker system will drag into northern California Saturday for a chance of light showers from mainly Merced County north. Some models show the development of another system next Monday. we’ll see if any trends develop on that.
For the current storm, the high resolution models have depicted 1..44 inches of rain for Porterville with similar amounts up and down the east side of the valley. The west side and Kern County will be hard to nail down, as they usually are. The far west side may not pick up more than .50 with similar conditions over the valley portion of Kern County. These estimates are for Monday through Wednesday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight through Tuesday night. For Thursday and Friday mornings, we anticipate widespread low to mid 30s. Thursday morning’s forecast will be quite chaotic as the atmosphere will still be a bit unsettled behind the exiting storm. Still, in areas with mostly clear skies, colder locations will dip into the lower 30s with the chance of upper 20s in the very coldest regions. No doubt upslope clouds will develop in Kern and Tulare Counties. Those areas with cloud cover will only chill into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Mostly clear skies will prevail Friday morning, so low to mid 30s will be more widespread, again with the chance of those coldest river bottom type locations dipping into the upper 20s.
We just may see some cloud cover Saturday morning from a weak disturbance moving through northern California which may hold temperatures into the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Cloud cover may also be a factor Sunday and Monday with temperatures rising above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root Creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/39% Porterville, 100%/43%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 10% tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 20%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 53 Parlier 51 Arvin 60 Porterville 55 Delano 61
Sky cover: Visalia 60% today 70% Friday Bakersfield 30% today 80% Friday,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 58, Arvin 64, Porterville 62, Delano 62 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/45 Record Temperatures: 85/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 133 +3 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .14 Ave .71 -.53 Monthly .13
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .27 Ave .36 -.09 Monthly: -.00 -.33
Average Temperature This Month: 53.3 -4.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 28, Parlier 41, Arvin 24 , Belridge 31, Shafter 28, Stratford 42, Delano 29, Porterville 33 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:30, Sunset, 4:55, hours of daylight, 10:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 47 / T /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 67 / 52 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 66 / 55 / 0.04 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 50 / T /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 72 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 74 / 58 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 71 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 0.27 30 3.88 426 0.91 13.45
MODESTO 0.03 0.34 48 2.85 401 0.71 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.37 45 1.74 210 0.83 11.80
MADERA 0.01 0.18 31 0.57 98 0.58 10.79
FRESNO T 0.14 20 1.27 179 0.71 10.99
HANFORD T T 0 1.10 193 0.57 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.27 75 0.94 261 0.36 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.01 3 0.65 163 0.40 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 M M 0.14 2.20
SALINAS 0.03 0.27 34 1.68 213 0.79 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.01 1 1.29 179 0.72 13.32
Next report: November 7 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.