November 8, 2022
A solid area of rain extends from southwest to northeast and covers most of northern and central California. Another area of rain is moving on shore through Los Angeles and Orange Counties with heavy precipitation. Another area of heavy rain extends from the Sacramento Valley south/southwest to roughly Monterey and then out to sea. This area will move through the valley this morning with widespread rain, possibly locally heavy at times. The center of circulation of the cold core low is just to the northwest of the Golden Gate and is moving slowly eastward. As it moves inland, the rain will turn to showers with possible thunderstorm activity this afternoon. That will depend on whether or not we get some breaks in the overcast to destabilize the atmosphere. Generous amounts of rain and snow are occurring along the entire Sierra Nevada and this will continue for at least another 24 to 36 hours. As much as 4 to 6 feet of new snow still seems plausible at the highest elevations with 2 to 4 feet as low as 6,000 feet. Periods of showers will continue through Wednesday, especially during the first half of the day.
The back side of the low will not clear the Sierra Nevada until sometime later Wednesday afternoon, meaning isolated thunderstorms are a possibility Wednesday, too, depending on the timing and exit strategy of the storm.
Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue through Saturday night. A weak low will track across northern California late Sunday and Monday, spreading light showers down to Merced County with a slight chance down to Fresno County. This storm will pale in comparison to the current event. after Monday, the high will rebuild for several days of dry weather. The air mass filling in behind this storm is cold with areas of frost from Thursday through Saturday mornings. More below.
Forecast: Rain this morning, breaking into numerous showers this afternoon through Wednesday morning. A chance afternoon and evening thunderstorms and again Wednesday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Saturday night with patchy night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night through Monday with a chance of light showers from Merced County northward with a slight chance as far south as Fresno County. Partly cloudy Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/43/58/33/58 | Reedley 61/45/58/33/57 | Dinuba 61/44/57/32/57 |
| Porterville 62/45/58/32/57 | Lindsay 63/45/57/31/58 | Delano 63/46/57/33/57 |
| Bakersfield 64/47/57/40/57 | Taft 64/48/57/40/57 | Arvin 63/45/58/34/58 |
| Lamont 63/46/59/34/58 | Pixley 60/45/58/33/58 | Tulare 60/44/57/32/57 |
| Woodlake 61/43/57/33/58 | Hanford 61/45/57/34/57 | Orosi 61/43/58/32/57 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 33/58 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 35/62 |
Sunday
PM showers possible 41/64 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 42/65 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 41/63 |
Two Week Outlook: November 15 through November 21: This model shows a rather chilly northwest flow into California, maintaining below average temperatures. It also indicates above average precipitation over the northern half of California and doesn’t rule out a chance of showers further south.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: As the front approaches this morning, pressure gradients will tighten up to generate winds out of the southeast for a time at 8 to 15 mph. As the front passes later today, winds will become out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds tonight through Wednesday will be variable to 15 mph with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers or thunderstorms. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be generally less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Heavy amounts of rain are currently falling in the northwest San Joaquin Valley along a cold front which is currently moving through central California. There are reports of flooding in San Jose and northward through the Bay Area. The rain will push into the valley this morning, possibly heavy at times then will break off into showers this afternoon. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon. Any storms that do develop will be accompanied by their buddies: locally strong winds and small hail. Periods of showers will continue tonight and Wednesday morning, tapering off in the afternoon. I wouldn’t completely rule out thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon if the back side of the low is still overhead. An additional inch of rain is possible over the next 24 hours, especially along the east side. Anywhere from .25 to .50 is possible along the west side with .25 over the valley portion of Kern County, with some luck. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue through at least Saturday night. There is a chance of light showers from Merced County north Sunday night and Monday with a slight chance further south. Any precipitation that does occur will be very light. We’ll enjoy several days of dry weather from Tuesday on.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight. Thursday morning will be quite chaotic, meteorologically speaking. The best chance of frost will be in Madera and Fresno Counties. There should be areas of cloud cover in Tulare and Kern Counties due to upsloping against the valley facing slopes of the southern mountains. Even so, this is a cold air mass for this early in the season with low to mid 30s anticipated for Thursday and Friday mornings and possibly Saturday morning. There is a small chance of upper 20s in the low lying river bottom and like locations for short durations. Moderation will begin Sunday as cloud cover moves in. for Monday and beyond, above freezing conditions can be expected. With a soaked valley floor, areas of fog may come into play, especially up and down the center of the valley.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root Creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/39% Porterville, 100%/43%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 10% tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 20%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 53 Parlier 51 Arvin 60 Porterville 55 Delano 61
Sky cover: Visalia 60% today 70% Friday Bakersfield 30% today 80% Friday,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 58, Arvin 64, Porterville 62, Delano 62 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/45 Record Temperatures: 85/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 133 +3 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .14 Ave .71 -.53 Monthly .13
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .27 Ave .36 -.09 Monthly: -.00 -.33
Average Temperature This Month: 53.3 -4.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 28, Parlier 41, Arvin 24 , Belridge 31, Shafter 28, Stratford 42, Delano 29, Porterville 33 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:30, Sunset, 4:55, hours of daylight, 10:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 47 / T /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 67 / 52 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 66 / 55 / 0.04 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 50 / T /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 72 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 74 / 58 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 71 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 0.27 30 3.88 426 0.91 13.45
MODESTO 0.03 0.34 48 2.85 401 0.71 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.37 45 1.74 210 0.83 11.80
MADERA 0.01 0.18 31 0.57 98 0.58 10.79
FRESNO T 0.14 20 1.27 179 0.71 10.99
HANFORD T T 0 1.10 193 0.57 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.27 75 0.94 261 0.36 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.01 3 0.65 163 0.40 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 M M 0.14 2.20
SALINAS 0.03 0.27 34 1.68 213 0.79 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.01 1 1.29 179 0.72 13.32
Next report: November 8 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.