January 10, 2023
Daytime heating is destabilizing a pool of cold, unstable air which moved in behind the cold front earlier this morning. As the atmosphere continues to heat, more showers will break out with a chance of scattered thunderstorms through this evening. After the evening hours, the showers will become more widely scattered and will be confined to the mountain areas Wednesday. A weak wave of flow pressure will move through Thursday for a small chance of showers as small south as Fresno County. Friday will be dry as a weak ridge of high pressure moves through with a chance of showers again as early as Friday night. Saturday will begin yet another prolonged period of wet weather. In fact, it’s difficult to discern where one storm begins and another ends. Basically, what it’s saying is that there’s very little room between storms as they move onshore. However, in the longer term, hope will spring eternal in the form of a break in the action. This is the third day in a row for the GFS model to indicate a ridge of upper level high pressure building northward along the Pacific coast, driving the storm track back into the Pacific Northwest. We have a long way to go before reaching that time frame. The break off date between wet and dry weather is the 19th or 20th. The river forecast center for California and Nevada is indicating another 6 to 8 inches of rain between today and the 16th. That’s on top of the 6 to 10 inches which has been tallied up and down the Sierra Nevada from the 10th through the 16th.
Forecast: Scattered showers and a chance of scattered thunderstorms through this evening. A chance of widely scattered showers late tonight then a slight chance of a few showers Wednesday through Thursday evening, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday. An increasing chance of showers Friday night, mainly after midnight. Periods of rain Saturday through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 40/56/43/61 | Reedley 40/57/42/62 | Dinuba 39/55/42/61 |
| Porterville 41/56/43/64 | Lindsay 39/56/43/64 | Delano 42/57/43/64 |
| Bakersfield 43/56/44/65 | Taft 43/56/45/63 | Arvin 43/57/44/64 |
| Lamont 44/56/44/63 | Pixley 40/56/42/62 | Tulare 40/55/42/62 |
| Woodlake 39/56/42/61 | Hanford 41/55/43/63 | Orosi 40/55/43/61 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will decrease tonight to 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts near showers. Winds Wednesday through Thursday day will be generally at or less than 10 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Friday and Friday night will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph.
Rain: The following are storm totals, mostly as of noon: Bakersfield .95, Delano 1.44, Porterville 1.84, Tulare 1.25, Lemoore 1.93, Hanford 1.55, Fresno 1.91, Merced 2.97.
In the mountains: Mariposa 8.11, Wawona 9.17, Bass Lake 6.32, Shaver Lake 8.80, Wishon Dam 9.81, Peppermint 7.40, Kernville 3.17.
The rain is tapering off now into scattered showers. With daytime heating this afternoon,, more showers and possibly some thunderstorms may break out then taper off this evening. There’s a slight chance of a few showers Wednesday through Thursday as far south as Fresno County with dry weather Thursday night through Friday. The chance of showers will again increase Friday night, especially after midnight. It looks like we’ll have another 7 to 8 days to go with one storm system after another moving on shore. Models still point towards the 20th or so for the beginning of a dry pattern which should last for a while. (Knock on wood.)
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next report: January 11 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.