January 13, 2023
A weak wave of low pressure is currently moving through the valley with a couple bands of light showers north of Kern County. The second storm in this series will come on shore later tonight and early Saturday with widespread rain. This system also has a minor atmospheric river attached which will no doubt enhance precipitation totals. Blended high resolution quantitative precipitation estimates indicate this next storm between late tonight and Sunday will tally up to around 1.25 at Merced, 1.19 at Fresno, and .89 at Porterville. The severe storm center in Oklahoma also has their eyes on the valley for Saturday late afternoon and Sunday for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Showers will continue Saturday night into Sunday morning with a brief break in the activity later Sunday and Sunday evening. Storm number 3 will arrive Sunday night, continuing Monday and Monday night. This system is not quite as strong as the Saturday event but will still keep showers going possibly into Tuesday. Where models diverge is at midweek. The chance of rain south of Fresno County will be reduced as it appear we may have an inside slider on the way Wednesday and Thursday. A cold low will move out of the Gulf of Alaska, through the Pacific Northwest, and then into the Great Basin. Snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada. This system may morph into a cut off low over central and southern California. While this is taking place, a strong upper high will build northeastward off shore into the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada. This, in turn, results in a northeast flow from western Canada, piping that cold air right into California. This will result in a very slight chance of light showers with lowering snow levels. It could even set the state for our next frost forecast about a week from Monday, although that’s a very low confidence prediction as we’re nine days out.
Forecast: A chance of light showers through mid afternoon. Becoming partly cloudy tonight. Rain will again spread over the valley after midnight. Rain Saturday, locally heavy at times, continuing Saturday night. There will be a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Showers tapering off Sunday then becoming mostly cloudy. Rain likely again Sunday night through Monday with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Rain Monday evening then mostly cloudy later in the night. A slight chance of showers for a time Tuesday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday night through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 49/58/44/54 | Reedley 51/57/45/55 | Dinuba 50/57/44/54 |
| Porterville 50/58/45/57 | Lindsay 49/57/45/55 | Delano 51/58/45/56 |
| Bakersfield 51/58/46/55 | Taft 52/58/45/54 | Arvin 50/59/46/55 |
| Lamont 50/57/46/55 | Pixley 49/57/45/54 | Tulare 49/56/44/54 |
| Woodlake 49/56/43/55 | Hanford 51/57/46/55 | Orosi 48/56/44/54 |
Wind Discussion: Winds along the west side for a time this evening will be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Elsewhere, winds will be mainly out of the south at 8 to 15 mph. later tonight through Monday, winds will generally be out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Gusts to 35 mph can be expected on the west side. It’s possible some local downslope winds will move down the Tehachapi Mountains, generating winds gusting to near 50 mph Saturday and Saturday night. I put the chance of this occurring at roughly 40%
Rain: The light showers currently moving down the valley will end by late afternoon with a few hours of dry weather until later tonight when storm number 2 moves in. widespread rain will move down the valley with rain continuing through at least Saturday morning then ending for a time later Saturday afternoon. Again, rainfall estimates are as follows from tonight through Sunday: Fresno 1.19, Porterville .89, and Merced 1.25. Kern County should record anywhere from .25 to .33. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible both Saturday and Sunday. If storms do develop, isolated locations could receive more than forecast. Storm number 3 will arrive Monday into Tuesday. This system won’t be as strong as the Saturday event but could still put down .25 to .33 in wetter locations. For now, the chance of rain is greatly reduced for Wednesday through Friday, especially south of Fresno. a small chance of showers if forecast for this weekend, although most of the activity will be over the mountains.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next report: January 14 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.