March 4, 2023
The weak high which governed our weather the past few days is being displaced to the southwest out over the eastern Pacific as yet another very cold low drops southward. At this hour, that low is placed west of Vancouver Island. Clouds in advance of the low have already spread over central California and showers are showing up along the northwest California coast. A weak southerly flow ahead of the incoming storm will push temperatures up to near 60 at most locations this afternoon. In fact, the freezing level over Oakland a short time ago had shot up to 6,300 feet but will plummet on Sunday as the latest cold air mass settles in over the area with snow again down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet in the nearby mountains. Showers will spread into the valley tonight, continuing Sunday. The dynamics of this system will drop off sharply south of Fresno County with only light scattered showers expected in Kern County. Further north, however, rainfall amounts will be somewhat more substantial with another round of heavy snow along the southern Sierra Nevada. The cold trough will remain over the west through Wednesday. However, most models pull the main rain line back into northern California. There will be a small chance of showers Thursday as a secondary low drops through the trough. Most models are showing the movement of the trough heading into the interior west beginning Friday, but continue to show a northerly flow over California, maintaining well below average temperatures through Friday. This is where models really begin to diverge with most showing a cold trough over the west with a ridge of high pressure just off shore. High pressure will finally build back over the weekend for dry weather and a warming trend.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today through Sunday. Showers spreading down the valley tonight, continuing Sunday, mainly during the morning. Variable cloudiness at times Sunday night through Wednesday. A slight chance of showers Wednesday night through Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 59/40/53/45/54 | Reedley 60/40/54/35/55 | Dinuba 58/39/53/34/54 |
| Porterville 60/39/54/34/55 | Lindsay 59/38/53/34/54 | Delano 60/40/53/37//55 |
| Bakersfield 59/40/54/37/54 | Taft 59/41/53/38/53 | Arvin 61/40/54/37/56 |
| Lamont 60/40/55/37/56 | Pixley 58/38/53/35/54 | Tulare 58/37/53/36/54 |
| Woodlake 59/39/54/36/55 | Hanford 60/40/54/36/56 | Orosi 58/38/54/35/54 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 32/54 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 33/56 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 34/55 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 33/55 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 36/60 |
Two Week Outlook: March 10 through March 16 This model gives the highest likelihood of precipitation anywhere in the country for this period of time to northern and central California. With the likelihood of precipitation will be below average temperatures.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be light and mainly out of the southeast. Winds tonight will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts possible, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally less than 12 mph and will be variable. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: showers will again spread down the valley tonight, mainly after midnight. Showers will continue Sunday, ending by Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts on the valley floor have improved with possibly as much as .25 to .50 along the east side of the valley from Fresno County north. Over much of Tulare County between .10 and .25 is possible. Along the western side of Fresno and Kings Counties, .10 to .20 can be expected with generally less than .10 over the valley portion of Kern County. The active portion of this trough will move a bit further north Monday, resulting in a dry forecast Monday through Wednesday night there’s a slight chance of showers Thursday as a secondary low drops into California with dry weather Friday through the weekend. For now, anyway, the first few days of the following week also appear dry.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing tonight. Widespread low to mid 30s are anticipated Monday morning as a colder air mass settles over California. For the period Tuesday through Friday, below freezing temperatures at least at the colder locations are possible due to a northerly flow moving down the west coast. On any of these nights if skies clear and winds die off, upper 20s cannot be ruled out in river bottom type and frog pond locations. Most locations on each of these nights will range between 30 and 35. Moderation is finally due this coming weekend as the cold trough pulls further east.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/56%, Delano 94%45%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .60, Parlier, .43, Arvin 59, Porterville .46, Delano .55 Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 47, Arvin 51, Porterville 47, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/43 Record Temperatures: 84/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2095 +77 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 13.87, Monthly .39
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 6.91, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature This Month 45.3 -8.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:24, sunset, 5:57. Hours of daylight, 11:30
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 61 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 61 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 59 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 60 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 59 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : M / M / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 17.50 177 8.21 83 9.89 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 15.39 174 8.16 92 8.83 12.27
MERCED 0.00 15.76 189 5.87 70 8.34 11.80
MADERA 0.00 7.89 106 1.56 21 7.47 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 13.87 185 5.25 70 7.50 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 10.75 192 4.78 86 5.59 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.91 158 3.67 84 4.38 6.36
BISHOP M M M M M M 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M M M M M M 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 10.59 114 6.18 67 9.27 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 15.70 176 7.37 83 8.90 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.37 192 6.33 66 9.58 13.32
Next report: March 4 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.