April 28, 2023 am
Summary: Temperatures yesterday ranged from 91 at Merced to 94 at Lemoore. Upper level high pressure is directly above California this morning. This will drive temperatures 3 to 4 degrees warmer still today and Saturday, pushing temperatures to near record territory. The marine layer along the coast stands at roughly 1,200 feet this morning. Winds at Travis AFB in the Delta are out of the southwest at just 13 mph, so no help from that source through Saturday. Temperatures will begin to trend down Sunday, initially because of a rapidly deepening marine layer which will surge through the Delta along with other gaps and passes through the Coast Range. This will be the first phase of a mammoth weather change which will see temperatures drop from the mid to upper 90s to possibly the upper 60s to the lower 70s Tuesday. All this will be brought on by a cold weather system currently in the Gulf of Alaska which will drop southward to a position west of the Washington/Oregon coast Sunday, near the northwest California coast Monday and almost right overhead Tuesday. Showers will be widespread over the mountain areas with possibly more than an inch of rain in the central and northern Sierra. The chance of showers over the valley floor will increase Tuesday and will last through Thursday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few isolated thunderstorms develop Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. So, the 2022/2023 rainfall year has not finished with us yet. Some models this morning indicate another system following a similar path next weekend. As we move through the coming days we will study the ramifications, if any, this will have on the valley.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness, breezy, and much cooler Monday through Friday. There will be a chance of showers Tuesday through Thursday with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
Temperatures:
| Madera
95/59/96/60/89 |
Reedley
97/60/98/62/91 |
Dinuba
95/58/96/61/91 |
| Porterville
95/59/97/61/92 |
Lindsay
96/58/97/60/91 |
Delano
97/62/98/62/92 |
| Bakersfield
95/67/97/68/92 |
Taft
95/70/96/69/89 |
Arvin
97/62/98/62/92 |
| Lamont
96/61/97/62/91 |
Pixley
95/61/96/62/91 |
Tulare
94/58/96/60/90 |
| Woodlake
95/59/97/60/91 |
Hanford
96/61/98/62/91 |
Orosi
95/58/97/61/89 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Increasing clouds 49/75 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 48/70 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 45/71 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 46/71 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 47/72 |
Two Week Outlook: May 5 through May 10: This model is showing a late season low pressure system moving through California with a greater than average shot at precipitation during this period. Even so, temperatures will remain close to average.
April: This model is showing a dominant westerly flow during the month, resulting in below average temperatures. The main storm track will be through the Pacific Northwest and the northern one-fourth of California. Central California is just south of that zone with predicted near average precipitation.
April, May, June: The 90 day outlook calls for generally near to below average precipitation as we head into the dry season. The model doesn’t swing in either direction regarding temperatures, calling for near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Saturday night will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph. Winds during the night and morning will be mainly at or below 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday will increase out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. gusts to 30 mph can be expected along the west side and locally elsewhere. Winds Monday will continue out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through Monday and probably Monday night. The chance of light showers will increase Tuesday and continue at times through Thursday. There will also be a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. For now, it appears rainfall amounts will be quite light, generally no more than a tenth or two. More, however, if any thunderstorms develop. Dry weather will return Thursday through Friday night. This morning, though, some models are showing the development of a new low pressure system that will follow a similar path into California next weekend.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.75, Parlier, 1.57, Arvin 1.67, Porterville .NA, Delano 1.55 Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 67, Arvin 66, Porterville NA, Delano 71 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 77/50 Record Temperatures: 98/36
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 22 -14 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.48, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.74, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature This Month 60.6 -0.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:07, sunset, 7:46. hours of daylight, 13:36
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 91 / 51 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 91 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 94 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 93 / 53 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 93 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 90 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 90 / 68 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 92 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 92 / 67 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 22.87 181 9.75 77 12.63 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 19.31 170 8.99 79 11.34 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.07 182 7.44 68 11.02 11.80
MADERA 0.00 10.83 107 2.10 21 10.08 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.48 172 6.29 62 10.19 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.48 190 6.34 83 7.61 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 9.74 163 5.40 90 5.98 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.66 333 4.75 116 4.10 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.06 62 M M 1.71 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.73 115 7.31 61 11.99 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.51 177 8.70 75 11.62 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 23.18 182 7.79 61 12.74 13.32
Next report: April 29 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.