October 10, 2023
Summary Temperatures yesterday varied widely from north to south. High temperatures ranged from 73 at Merced to 92 at Bakersfield. Highs today will be more uniform with most locations topping out at near 80. Low pressure extends from a center off the British Columbia coast with a trough sinking into northern California. A great deal of energy extends from the low into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. A piece of energy will slide a bit further south tonight and Wednesday with showers affecting roughly the northern one-third of California. The main impact over the valley will be additional cooling with readings only in the low to mid 70s Wednesday and the mid to upper 70s Thursday. A weak ridge of high pressure will move in from the west Thursday and Friday, shifting eastward by Friday night. A zonal pattern will develop over the weekend with disturbances affecting the Pacific Northwest and the northern one-quarter of California. Temperatures over the weekend will be near to marginally above average. Yet another weak trough of low pressure will move through northern California Monday and Tuesday with little impact here. Models diverge in trying to nail down a pattern for Wednesday and beyond. We may see a southwest to northeast high building into the Pacific Northwest with a cut off low over the Desert Southwest for a continuation of above average temperatures and dry conditions.
Forecast Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Wednesday night. Mostly clear Thursday through Friday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 79/52/73/48/78 | Reedley 81/54/74/48//78 | Dinuba 80/52/73/47/78 |
| Porterville 81/52/74/48/79 | Lindsay 80/53/75/47/77 | Delano 81/55/75/50/70 |
| Bakersfield 81/59/73/52/78 | Taft 77/58/70/52/75 | Arvin 81/56/73/50/79 |
| Lamont 81/56/74/51/79 | Pixley 80/54/73/49/78 | Tulare 79/51/73/46/78 |
| Woodlake 80/52/75/48/78 | Hanford 80/55/75/49/77 | Orosi 80/52/74/47/78 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Mostly clear 48/84 | Saturday Mostly clear 50/84 | Sunday Mostly clear 51/83 | Monday Mostly clear 51/85 | Tuesday Mostly clear 53/84 |
Two Week Outlook: October 16 through October 22 This model shows a large upper high covering the eastern Pacific and the western 1/3, resulting in dry conditions and above average temperatures.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion: Winds will generally be out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph through Wednesday evening. Local gusts to 20 mph are possible, mainly along the west side. Winds Thursday through Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.18, Parlier, 1.00, Arvin 1.28, Delano 1.13.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier *, Arvin 75, Delano 71 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 81/54, Record Temperatures: 99/42
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2089 +253 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 72.4 +3.5. taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:03. Sunset, 6:28. hours of daylight, 11:28
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 73 / 61 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 78 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 65 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 59 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 92 / 66 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 76 / 57 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 82 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.11 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 10 0.00 0 0.10 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 500 0.00 0 0.03 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 180 0.00 0 0.10 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.01 10 0.00 0 0.10 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.08 13.32
Next report: October 11 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.