Summary: Clouds are increasing this afternoon in association with a very weak trough of low pressure which will move through tonight and Friday morning. A ridge of high pressure will quickly follow suit Friday and will dominate our weather through Monday. temperatures will flatten out Friday, ranging in the mid to upper 60s. They’ll move up into the low to mid 70s Saturday through Tuesday. This afternoon’s GFS model paints a completely different picture with a Pacific storm we’ve been discussing the past few days. Instead of a strong Pacific winter storm off the northern California coast, the current model is showing the storm stalling several hundred miles off shore, too far off shore to bring precipitation to central California. The low is now expected to weaken, finally moving in a week from Saturday with only a chance of light showers, and then mainly over the mountains. Since this is a complete flip flop from previous model runs, we’ll keep a chance of rain in the forecast for Wednesday night through Friday, but I do want to emphasize the word “chance”. New also on this model is a pattern for the 21st through the 25th. It shows a large ridge of high pressure building into the Gulf of Alaska while a semi arctic low drops down from western Canada. This looks to be a moisture starved system, but does offer a chance of showers with snow down to low elevations. This could also lead to some frost nights the last several days of November.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness tonight and early Friday. Mostly clear later Friday afternoon through Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night. A chance of showers Wednesday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 38/69/36/70 | Reedley 40/68/36/71 | Dinuba 38/67/36/69 | |
| Porterville 40/67/36/71 | Lindsay 38/67/35/70 | Delano 41/68/37/69 | |
| Bakersfield 45/67/40/70 | Taft 48/62/44/66 | Arvin 41/69/39/71 | |
| Lamont 41/68/38/70 | Pixley 39/67/36/71 | Tulare 39/67/35/69 | |
| Woodlake 39/67/35/70 | Hanford 40/67/37/70 | Orosi 38/68/35/69 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday. Some models this afternoon have done a 180 on the pattern for Tuesday through friiday, which is detailed in the summary. If this new model run is correct, we would have no challenges with wind next week.
Rain: As discussed in the summary portion of this report, models have flip flopped on the pattern for Tuesday through Friday of next week. under the latest model run, the most we would see would be light showers but not until next Saturday. Since this is a complete change, future model runs will have to be analyzed to come up with a definitive forecast. At this time, the best course of action is to call for a chance of rain Tuesday through Friday, but instead of rain being likely, we’ll now go with forecasting a chance of rain.
Frost: Most locations will be a few degrees warmer tonight due to increased cloud cover with readings mostly in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. More mid to upper 30s are likely for Saturday through Monday mornings with the coldest regions being slightly above freezing. The general forecast pattern for next week has completely gone out the window. One of the main medium range models has completely reversed the chance of rain for Wednesday through Friday. Regardless, temperatures will remain above freezing for all of next week. however, there is a potential pattern beginning the 21st that places a large high off shore building into the Gulf of Alaska with a cold low dropping southward into the western US. This would create a pipeline of arctic air from western Canada into the western US. The pattern for the 21st through the 23rd would give us a chance of showers with low snow levels. Any night from the 23rd on could be a frost night. For now, we’ll take this with a grain of salt.
Next report: November 10/morning