Summary: Upper level high pressure is pushing in this afternoon from the eastern Pacific Ocean. Even so, temperatures are generally 1 to 3 degrees lower than 24 hours ago due to a very weak trough of low pressure that moved through last night. The high now building inland will begin a warming trend Saturday, continuing through Monday before leveling off. Models are still having a difficult time nailing down the placement and intensity of a Pacific storm that will develop off the Pacific coast Monday and Tuesday. The GFS model continues to park this system farther off shore than other models. Other models show the system closer to the coast by Wednesday or Thursday. The main similarity is that precipitation will hold off until Wednesday night with the greatest risk being Friday night into Saturday. The best course of action is to call for a slight chance of showers Wednesday with showers becoming likely at times Thursday and Friday with even a chance of rain next Saturday. Also, medium range models show upper level high pressure building northward along the Pacific coast into the Gulf of Alaska with a cold low dropping more southeastward into the Rockies and Midwest rather than into California. This would reduce the chance of a cold snap, even though it will be a chilly weather pattern.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional cloudiness tonight. Mostly clear Saturday through Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday leading to a slight chance o rain Wednesday night. Rain becoming likely at times Thursday and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/69/37/74 | Reedley 38/70/37/75 | Dinuba 36/69/37/73 | |
| Porterville 37/70/38/75 | Lindsay 35/69/36/74 | Delano 38/71/38/76 | |
| Bakersfield 43/70/42/77 | Taft 45/65/48/73 | Arvin 40/71/41/76 | |
| Lamont 40/69/41/75 | Pixley 38/70/39/76 | Tulare 36/68/37/73 | |
| Woodlake 35/68/37/73 | Hanford 38/69/38/74 | Orosi 35/69/37/73 | |
Winds: Winds will generally be at or less than 7 mph with near calm conditions through Monday. as we head into the middle part of next week, fairly significant differences in pressure will develop between an off shore low and the interior west. There is a chance that Wednesday and Thursday may be windy and gusty down in Kern County. Some models place the center of the low too far off shore to have much of an impact. Other models, though, place the low close enough to the coast to potentially generate some gusty winds.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night and possibly even Wednesday night. The GFS model continues to show a strong low remaining too far off shore for precipitation to spread inland until Friday and even then it only suggests light showers. Blended model information, however, shows the low close enough to the coast for rain, but even these models don’t show the rain arriving until Thursday. For now, we’ll continue with only a minor risk of rain Wednesday with the likelihood of rain Thursday through Saturday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next week, but only slightly above tonight through Sunday night. Models this afternoon for the period beginning the 22nd definitely look colder. However, the main body of colder air is now projected to move into the Rockies and Midwest rather than California. For now, anyway, no hard freeze is on the horizon. I still want to carefully watch the pattern beginning the 22nd.
Next report: November 11/morning